Why are some countries more vulnerable to sanctions-related trade disruption than others? TRACER approaches this question through structural exposure: the underlying economic and trade characteristics that shape a country’s susceptibility to the specific sanctions regime. Structural exposure reflects how dependent a country is on trade with Russia, the composition of its exports, its position within global supply chains, and the availability of alternative trading partners. Unlike institutional capacity, these factors are largely determined by economic structure rather than enforcement capabilities.

Structural exposure cannot be captured by a single indicator. Some countries are more exposed to sanctions-evasion risks because of their geography, trade networks, economic structure, or role in international supply chains. The TRACER framework combines these factors into a separate measure of structural exposure. This allows countries to be assessed not only on their sanctions-enforcement capacity, but also in light of the challenges and opportunities they face in preventing sanctions evasion.

Structural Exposure Across Countries (2022–2024)

The ranking below compares structural exposure across all countries included in the TRACER framework.

The chart shows the TRACER Structural Exposure Index (Pillar 4) for all countries included in the study. Higher scores indicate greater exposure to sanctions-related trade disruption. Countries with high exposure typically combine substantial pre-war trade relationships with Russia, concentration in affected sectors, and fewer alternative trade options. Because the index is standardized, scores represent relative positions within the sample rather than an absolute measure of vulnerability. The results reveal substantial variation in structural conditions across countries, highlighting that sanctions pressure is unevenly distributed.

The TRACER Data Report documents the practical and analytical steps taken to develop a composite index evaluating national-level compliance (or lack thereof) with export restrictions against Russia, taking into account institutional capabilities and structural constraints.