Sanctions on Russia & Russian Economic Retaliation
This project serves as a hub that collects, organizes, and shares insights, data, and analysis on the evolving landscape of sanctions against Russia—providing researchers, journalists, and policymakers with accessible, high-quality resources in one place.
Project Team
How Do Sanctions work?
Sanctions are one of the key tools countries use to influence the behavior of other states, organizations, or individuals without resorting to military force. They involve restricting normal economic or financial relations in order to exert pressure or signal disapproval. While open economic relations are generally beneficial, governments sometimes impose sanctions in response to violations of international norms or threats to security.
What is the effect of sanctions?
Even if it is not straightforward to ascertain whether sanctions are effective at reaching their aim, whatever it may be, sanctions do produce some effect in any case for both the sender and the receiver, or target. There is a range of outcomes that might be affected and that previous studies have examined: inequality, exchange rates, trade composition and volume, the informal sector, military spending, women’s rights, and many more. But as it often happens, the most studied outcome is gross domestic product (GDP), as this is a measure that efficiently summarizes the whole economy and correlates significantly with many other outcomes we care about.
What is the effect of implemented sanctions against Russia?
This project maps the impact of sanctions against Russia, focusing on their goals, effects, and gaps in knowledge. Prioritizing measures that reduce Russia’s military capacity, it combines original analysis with existing research to offer a clear, comprehensive overview.
Why Do We Want to Measure the Effects of Sanctions?
Measuring sanctions helps ensure fair burden-sharing within the coalition, minimizes private gains at public cost, and strengthens support for Ukraine. It also guides compensation schemes and highlights the true impact on Russia versus the West.
Sanction Categories and Their Effects
Energy sector
Energy exports play a crucial role in Russia’s economy and have long served as geopolitical leverage over dependent countries. These measures aim to cut state revenues and reduce Russia’s geopolitical power.
Military production
Russia’s military production is dependent on Western components and technology. Halting the inflow is supposed to limit the capacity for production and, therefore, the military capacity.
Trade Restrictions
By definition, trade restrictions are welfare-reducing, as they limit the efficiency gains from specialization and exchange. In an extreme scenario, the world could fragment into distinct geopolitical blocs with minimal cross-border trade—reminiscent of the Cold War. This hypothetical scenario was explored in the 2023 IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO), which simulated global trade decoupling based on UN General Assembly (UNGA) voting patterns on the war in Ukraine.
Financial Restrictions
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, financial sanctions have become one of the most prominent tools used by Western governments to limit the Kremlin’s economic capacity and constrain its ability to fund the war. The emerging consensus on their effectiveness is nuanced. On one hand, sanctions have clearly disrupted Russia’s access to global financial networks, slashed trade with the West, and inflicted damage on key sectors like banking, investment, and energy. Major financial penalties, including exclusion from SWIFT and the freezing of central bank reserves, have led to reduced cross-border transactions, increased capital controls, and the collapse of e-commerce links with international partners.
Other Restrictions
The international response to Russia’s aggression has included a wide range of behavioral, symbolic, and mobility-related restrictions aimed at isolating the country on the world stage. These so-called “sanctions of inconvenience” include measures such as airspace closures, visa bans, suspension from international sporting and cultural events, and restrictions on travel and participation in global institutions.
Recent Studies
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Trade Sanctions
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The effect of sanctions on macro talent management: The case of Russia
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Public sentiment towards economic sanctions in the Russia–Ukraine war
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Russia–Ukraine crisis: The effects on the European stock market
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Long-Run Consequences of Sanctions on Russia
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Dodging Trade Sanctions? Evidence from Military Goods
About the Project
On February 24th, 2022, Russia launched its brutal full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In response, the European Union, the United States, the United Kingdom, and other allies imposed unprecedented sanctions across energy, trade, and financial sectors. While economic sanctions have long been a part of foreign policy, never before have such sweeping and coordinated measures been deployed against a country so deeply integrated into the global economy.
