This is not just a technical or academic concern. Understanding the real impact of sanctions matters for answering key political questions: How long can Russia sustain its war of aggression? Do sanctions meaningfully constrain its capabilities? And is it worthwhile to continue supporting and enforcing them? The answers to these questions are central to maintaining the long-term political will required to support Ukraine and uphold international norms.
Evaluating the impact of sanctions is far from straightforward. There are conceptual challenges, such as the multiple and sometimes symbolic objectives that sanctions may serve. But there are also practical obstacles, including limited data availability and the difficulty of identifying a credible counterfactual—that is, what would have happened in the absence of sanctions.
Despite these challenges, understanding the effects of sanctions is essential. Solid evidence is necessary to inform the design of sanctions, assess their implementation, and support decision-making on whether to maintain, adjust, or lift them. Without such evidence, policy risks drifting or collapsing under pressure from competing narratives.
This is not only a matter of analytical rigor, but also of political sustainability. Confirmation bias can affect analysts on all sides—interpreting evidence through the lens of prior beliefs. This risk is compounded when narratives become self-fulfilling: a widespread belief that sanctions are effective can strengthen compliance and public support, thereby increasing their impact. But the opposite is also true. If the prevailing narrative suggests that sanctions are ineffective or counterproductive, it may lead to defections from the sanctions regime, creating loopholes that reduce its effectiveness and empower the target.
In the case of Russia, the need for credible evaluation is particularly acute. Official Russian statistics—and some external reporting—have become part of a broader propaganda effort to portray Russia as resilient and victorious, while painting Ukraine and its allies as weak and divided. These narratives shape both domestic and international perceptions. Accurate, independent assessments of the Russian economy and the effects of sanctions can challenge this messaging and help provide a more realistic picture of the war’s costs.