Russia’s military production remains heavily dependent on Western components and technologies. Sanctions and export controls are intended to halt the inflow of these critical inputs, thereby constraining Russia’s production capabilities and, in turn, limiting its military capacity.
However, several structural and practical obstacles complicate the implementation and enforcement of these measures. Russia’s military-industrial complex is enmeshed in complex supply chains, opaque financial structures, and non-transparent documentation. The additional layer of military secrecy further impedes oversight and enforcement.
For sanctions and trade restrictions to meaningfully impact the battlefield during an ongoing conflict, swift and effective implementation is essential. Yet, when Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, it was deeply integrated into the global economy. Years into the war, Russia continues to obtain critical foreign components for its military production despite the sanctions regime. Circumvention is widespread, with routes through third countries well-mapped but insufficiently blocked.
A critical vulnerability in Russia’s supply chain is that the majority of foreign components found in Russian weapons originate from Western companies. This indicates that effective substitution—especially for high-tech parts—is not easily achievable for Russia. This reliance, while a challenge for enforcement, is also an opportunity: it suggests that sustained pressure on Western firms and their intermediaries could significantly impair Russian military production.
It is also important to stress that it is not only sanctioned goods that contribute to Russia military capacity. Even for items not explicitly covered by sanctions, companies face ethical, reputational, and in some cases legal risks. As noted in recent guidance,
“The prohibition against indirect dealings with restricted goods and/or parties also targets inadvertent (negligent) breaches. This places an obligation of due diligence on companies to ensure that they do not inadvertently export goods to, or for use in, Russia.”
In this context, even legally permissible exports may be subject to scrutiny if due diligence is insufficient. Firms must proactively assess supply chains, end users, and re-export risks to avoid complicity in sanctions evasion.
Explore more studies and research papers on the military production in the “Evidence Base” section.
