Granular trade data from UN Comtrade show that, after the February 2022 escalation of the war, Russia-friendly countries were 20 percentage points more likely to export military goods to Russia compared to neutral countries. Western sanctioning countries were 4 percentage points more likely to export military goods to Russia-friendly countries than to other neutral destinations. When it comes to re-exports, defined as goods imported and then directly exported without substantial transformation, those increased by 8 percentage points more from Georgia, Moldova, and Uzbekistan than from neutral countries. There is also suggestive evidence that sanction evasion for military goods was more prevalent in 2022 than in 2023, indicating that policy measures to curb evasion may have had some effect.
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