Did countries’ trade patterns change after sanctions on Russia were introduced? TRACER approaches this question through observed outcomes: measurable changes in trade flows following the introduction of sanctions. Specific patterns in trade flows reveal whether exports of sanction-sensitive goods increased, whether trade routes shifted, and whether countries became more prominent intermediaries in Russia-related trade networks.

Observed outcomes are not measured through a single indicator. Instead, the TRACER framework combines several trade-based measures that capture how countries’ export patterns evolved after 2022. Together, these indicators provide a credible proxy of realized trade diversion and the extent to which countries became involved in sanctions-sensitive trade flows.

The ranking below compares observed trade outcomes across all countries included in the TRACER framework.

The figure plots excessive export of 61 groups of sanctioned goods (the full list of categories is reported in the Appendix) to 6 intermediaries – Armenia, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, Serbia, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan – benchmarked against pre-war exports of the same goods to Russia. This benchmark may be viewed as a lower-bound proxy for Russian demand prior to the invasion. For instance, a ratio of 0.40 implies that a Western country’s excess exports to intermediary countries amount to 40 percent of the Western country’s pre-war exports to Russia.

Observed Outcomes measure what happened in trade flows, not why it happened. Higher scores do not necessarily indicate sanctions evasion, weak enforcement, or deliberate circumvention. They simply identify countries where post-2022 trade patterns changed more substantially than expected.

The link to observed outcomes constitutes the third stage of the TRACER analytical framework. Examining actual trade behavior provides an empirical benchmark to which institutional capacity and structural exposure can be related.

To explore the full methodology and learn about the details of the statistical models, trade datasets, outcome indicators, and analytical procedures used to identify sanctions-related trade patterns across countries, please read the report.

The TRACER Data Report documents the practical and analytical steps taken to develop a composite index evaluating national-level compliance (or lack thereof) with export restrictions against Russia, taking into account institutional capabilities and structural constraints.