The Russia Sanctions Index
This section of the portal will host a descriptive index of Western and third-country capabilities to support sanctions against Russia, with a focus on restrictive measures in commodity trade.
The Index Pillars
Corisk Structural Country Risk Model applies indicator-based analysis, where more than 200 independent variables (input) are given weights as causal determinants of 50 compound country risks (output). The Index measures sanction support capabilities and compliance at the national level, through three pillars:
#1 Pillar: Effectiveness of legal frameworks
In particular, legislation on sanctions and corruption.
#2 Pillar: Strength of public enforcement of trade and border controls
Based on the volume of sanctioned goods exported.
#3 Pillar: Strength of corporate compliance with export control regimes
Based on the volume of sanctioned goods shipped.
Methodological Approach
The index is constructed using a supervised learning approach, in which a model is trained on data for which the outcomes—such as changes in trade flows following sanctions—are already known. This allows the model to identify patterns and learn how different input factors relate to observed effects.
Key inputs include measures of how strongly sanctions are enforced and how well companies comply with them. These can differ depending on the sanctioning country and the role of intermediaries. Other relevant factors—such as legal and institutional constraints—will also be included to improve accuracy.
Once trained, the model can be used to estimate the index for countries and time periods where trade data is not available, as long as information on the relevant factors exists. This allows for broader application of the index beyond the initial sample.
The resulting index makes it possible to rank and compare countries in terms of their sanctions implementation and compliance, and to track how their performance evolves over time.
