Henrik Wachtmeister: Russia Risks Deeper Dependence on China

Industrial gas processing plant with large pipelines and towers representing the Power of Siberia 2 project.

Russia’s ambitious “Power of Siberia 2” gas pipeline project aims to deliver 50 billion cubic meters of gas annually to China, strengthening energy ties between Moscow and Beijing. In a recent article titled “Power of Siberia 2: China Could Still Fail Pipeline Project with Russia”, experts discussed whether Beijing’s hesitation could stall the project despite a new agreement signed by both sides.

“For Russia, China is its most important trading partner; the reverse is not true. Power of Siberia 2 could make Russia even more dependent on its most important trading partner, China,” noted Henrik Wachtmeister of the Department of Earth Sciences at Uppsala University.

The article highlighted growing skepticism among analysts about whether China will follow through with the deal. High construction costs, uncertain financing, and Beijing’s diversified energy strategy, spanning Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, and domestic renewables, suggest that China holds the stronger position in negotiations. For Moscow, whose European gas markets have evaporated under sanctions, China’s participation is vital both economically and politically.

To read Henrik Wachtmeister’s full commentary and the broader discussion on the future of Russia-China energy cooperation, see the complete article “Power of Siberia 2: China Could Still Fail Pipeline Project with Russia.”

Further Reading

Energy exports play a crucial role in Russia’s economy and have long served as a source of geopolitical leverage over dependent countries. Sanctions targeting the energy sector aim to reduce state revenues and diminish Russia’s geopolitical influence. Explore the latest research on sanctions against Russia and its energy industry in the Sanctions Portal Evidence Base section.

For more expert analysis from the Uppsala University experts, visit the Uppsala University homepage.