Russia’s latest budget projections paint a picture of stability, but independent economists warn of a far darker reality. In a recent analysis examining the country’s fiscal path through 2028, experts unpack the widening gap between official forecasts and Russia’s deteriorating economic fundamentals. The commentary reviews the Kremlin’s optimistic deficit targets and the mounting pressures created by sanctions and declining energy revenues.
“The deficit Russia expects for 2025 is quite significant. It’s true that the projected deficit for 2026 is lower, but these figures are just wishful thinking,” says Benjamin Hilgenstock of the KSE Institute.
Benjamin Hilgenstock also underscores that Russia’s assumptions rely on unrealistic expectations about oil and gas revenues, despite production already running at full wartime capacity and sanctions set to tighten further.
The broader analysis also highlights Russia’s constrained access to international markets, its forced reliance on domestic gold sales, and the severe impact of recent sanctions on major energy firms. With foreign currency inflows shrinking and the National Wealth Fund under growing strain, economists argue that Russia is heading toward prolonged fiscal instability. The article places Hilgenstock’s insight within a wider geopolitical strategy, in which sanctions now directly limit the Kremlin’s ability to convert natural resources into viable revenue.
Read the Full Article
To read the full commentary and explore Benjamin Hilgenstock’s expert analysis, visit the original article here.
Further Reading
Cutting Russia’s revenue requires a coordinated strategy that targets energy exports, essential materials, and critical technologies. Broader trade, financial, and military restrictions also continue to undermine its war effort and limit its global influence.
For deeper insights into how sanctions shape Russia’s economy, visit the Sanctions Portal Evidence Base. To learn more about Western measures and Russia’s responses, explore the Timeline of Western Sanctions and Russian Countermeasures.
