In the December 2025 Monthly Analysis of Russian Fossil Fuel Exports and Sanctions, the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) examines how Moscow’s fossil fuel trade evolved under sanctions. Petras Katinas and his colleagues authored the report.
It shows that Russia’s daily fossil fuel export revenues fell slightly to about €500 million per day. This marks one of the lowest revenue levels since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
The December data show that China and Turkey remain major buyers of Russian crude and refined products. Russia also continued to rely on a shadow fleet of tankers operating under false flags. By the end of December, 93 such vessels had delivered nearly €0.8 billion in oil and refined products.
About 46 percent of crude carried by false-flagged tankers passed through the Danish Straits. This indicates that alternative shipping routes still undermine sanctions.
Katinas and his co-authors argue that entity-based sanctions and price caps are easy to circumvent. Companies use special-purpose vehicles and shadow shipping to bypass restrictions.
In response, CREA proposes a full maritime services ban. The measure would target the physical infrastructure of exports. It aims to close loopholes and introduce uniform, volume-based limits on Russian oil revenues.
The report also highlights shifting import patterns in December. India’s crude imports from Russia dropped sharply. In contrast, China’s seaborne crude imports rose by 23 percent month-on-month. They reached their highest level in four months. France and Spain also increased their Russian LNG imports. The increases were 18 percent and 27 percent, respectively.
Katinas concludes that current sanctions have reduced Russia’s export income. However, they have not stopped sanctioned exports or neutralized the shadow fleet.
To read the full December 2025 CREA analysis and Petras Katinas’ insights on how sanctions and export dynamics are evolving, visit the original report on the CREA website.
Further Reading
Energy exports are central to Russia’s economy and have long served as a tool of geopolitical leverage for Moscow. Sanctions targeting the energy sector are designed to curb state revenues and diminish Russia’s global influence.
Explore the latest research on sanctions against Russia and its energy industry in the Sanctions Portal – Evidence Base section.
