Russia’s oil export structure is undergoing a major transformation, according to the latest Russian Oil Tracker published by the KSE Institute. The analysis highlights how sanctions and market adjustments are reshaping Russia’s crude export network. The report finds that traditional oil giants are losing dominance while new trading companies increasingly handle shipments.
According to the KSE Institute’s Russian Oil Tracker, the share of Russia’s largest producers in export flows has dropped sharply. Rosneft and Lukoil’s combined share of Russian crude exports fell from about 51% in 2023–2024 to just 19% by December 2025, indicating a significant restructuring of export chains. The shift suggests that sanctions and market pressures are pushing Russian oil exports toward smaller intermediaries and newly established trading firms. Emerging traders such as Redwood Global Supply, Vistula Delta, Ethos Energy, and Rosewood Resources now account for a growing portion of shipments.
The report also highlights broader changes in global demand and logistics. Russian seaborne oil exports rose by about 15% month-over-month in December, helping offset lower global oil prices. At the same time, import patterns are shifting. India’s purchases of Russian crude have declined sharply in early 2026, while China has increased its intake. The analysis further points to the continued importance of the “shadow fleet,” with hundreds of aging tankers transporting Russian oil outside traditional Western maritime services.
To explore the full findings from the KSE Institute’s Russian Oil Tracker and detailed analysis of Russia’s evolving export network, read the complete publication.
Further Reading
The U.S. sanctions on two Russian oil giants, Rosneft and Lukoil, came into effect on November 21, 2025. These sanctions affect not only the companies themselves but also their counterparties worldwide through the secondary sanctions clause. For the European Union, these sanctions highlight a central trade-off: how to exert real pressure on Russia without fracturing political alignment among EU Member States.
To learn more about the sanctions, read the FREE Network policy brief, which examines their consequences, including the immediate impact on the firms and Russia’s budget, the new tensions exposed in Europe’s energy policy, and the broader lessons for the next generation of EU sanctions tools.
Review the Timeline of Western Sanctions and Russian Countermeasures to track how both sides have adapted since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
