Ukrainian sea drones are emerging as a new threat to Russia’s shadow oil fleet. These attacks could also affect security in the Baltic Sea. In a recent article by Finland’s public broadcaster Yle, experts assessed how Ukraine’s naval tactics are reshaping Russian oil exports and regional risk.
Despite being weaker at sea, Ukraine has damaged several Russian vessels. Recent attacks have disabled oil tankers by destroying rudders and propellers. As a result, some Russian oil ports in the Black Sea have become unsafe destinations.
Henrik Wachtmeister on the Shadow Fleet’s Deterioration
Henrik Wachtmeister, researcher in global energy systems at the Swedish Institute for International Affairs and Uppsala University, warned that the situation is likely to worsen. He explained that pressure on the shadow fleet is increasing.
“The problems we have with the shadow fleet will likely increase,” Wachtmeister said. “The attacks will likely cause owners to use even more scrapped ships. The condition of the shadow fleet could become even worse.”
Henrik Wachtmeister added that the main impact is not only the destruction of vessels. Many shipowners are withdrawing from the trade. Others demand higher compensation. This increases discounts on Russian oil and raises operational risks.
Oil Exports Shift Toward the Baltic Sea
The Yle article also cites defense analyst Jarmo Nieminen. He noted that drone attacks have reduced oil shipments from the Black Sea. As a result, exports are shifting toward the Baltic Sea and the Gulf of Finland.
Ports such as Primorsk and Ust-Luga now handle a larger share of Russian exports. According to reported figures, Black Sea oil exports fell sharply after the attacks. At the same time, volumes from the Baltic increased. This shift concentrates risk in a sensitive region.
Rising Security and Environmental Concerns
Henrik Wachtmeister cautioned that more shadow tankers in the Baltic Sea raise serious concerns. Damaged or drifting oil tankers would be difficult to control. Salvage operations would be complex and dangerous for regional coast guards.
He also noted signs of increased Russian military activity in the Baltic Sea. These efforts likely aim to protect the shadow fleet from drone threats. Still, Wachtmeister warned that risks have grown and remain difficult to manage.
To read the full article and Henrik Wachtmeister’s commentary, visit YLE article here.
