A recent article in vnexpress.net explores what could happen if India stops purchasing Russian oil. The scenario has drawn attention during U.S.–India trade negotiations and ongoing Western sanctions on Moscow. The report explains how changes in India’s energy policy could reshape global oil markets, influence inflation, and add pressure to Russia’s budget.
Petras Katinas, an energy researcher at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), shared expert insight on India’s reliance on discounted Russian crude.
Petras Katinas noted that India saved about $33 billion in energy costs between 2022 and 2024 by buying Russian oil at discounted prices. These discounts helped India control fuel costs after the war in Ukraine disrupted global markets. However, estimates in the article suggest that ending these imports could raise India’s fuel expenses by $9–11 billion each year.
The article also examines the broader geopolitical and economic context. Since 2022, Western governments have targeted Russia’s oil and gas sector with sanctions. Despite these measures, energy exports remain a key source of revenue for Moscow. Russia produces about 12% of global oil supply. The oil and gas sector generates roughly 30% of the country’s budget revenues. Analysts warn that a sharp drop in demand for Russian oil could tighten global supply and push crude prices higher. Higher prices would likely affect inflation, transportation, and food costs worldwide.
For policymakers and markets, the debate shows how interconnected global energy trade has become. Petras Katinas emphasized that changes in India’s oil purchases could reshape Russia’s fiscal outlook and the global energy balance.
To read the full discussion and Petras Katinas’ commentary, visit the original article on vnexpress.net.
Further Reading
Energy exports remain central to Russia’s economy and its geopolitical influence. Sanctions on the energy sector aim to reduce state revenues and limit Russia’s global leverage. Explore the latest research on sanctions against Russia and its energy industry in the Sanctions Portal: Evidence Base section.
