Western governments are preparing a major shift in sanctions policy aimed at Russia’s oil exports. In a recent article published by VietGiaiTri, analysts examined how the G7 and the European Union plan to restrict maritime services to weaken Russia’s key revenue stream. The strategy reflects growing frustration with existing price caps and Moscow’s ability to adapt.
The article outlines discussions around a new sanctions package expected in early 2026. Instead of regulating oil prices, the proposed measures would deny Russian tankers access to insurance, repairs, and other essential maritime services in G7 and EU countries. Since most global maritime insurance is controlled by Western firms, the policy is designed to “stifle” offshore oil revenues and raise Russia’s logistics costs.
Yuliia Pavytska, Manager of Sanctions Programme at the KSE Institute, offered insight into the potential market impact of these measures. Pavytska noted that despite tighter restrictions, global oil prices are unlikely to surge. She pointed to forecasts showing a supply surplus of about four million barrels per day next year, with producers such as Saudi Arabia able to offset disruptions. Yuliia Pavytska emphasized that sanctions pressure will primarily affect Russia’s revenues rather than global supply stability.
The article also explored broader challenges linked to enforcement. A growing “clandestine” or shadow fleet already transports much of Russia’s oil outside Western legal frameworks. According to industry estimates cited in the report, this fleet now handles a majority of Russia’s seaborne crude exports. Yuliia Pavytska warned that even a full ban on maritime services is not a cure-all. She cautioned that tougher sanctions could accelerate the expansion of this shadow fleet, complicating long-term enforcement efforts.
To explore the full analysis and Yuliia Pavytska’s commentary on the evolving sanctions strategy, read the complete article on VietGiaiTri.
