The closure of Russian and Ukrainian airspace in response to the war has led to significant disruptions in air travel between Western Europe and Asia. This study examines the implications of these restrictions, highlighting how the withdrawal of overflight rights has forced airlines to take longer, costlier routes. The impact extends beyond logistical challenges, translating into increased airfares and possibly shifting competitive dynamics in the aviation industry.
The findings reveal that airfare prices have risen sharply for flights departing from Northern European airports, where the detours are most severe. On average, airfares on affected routes increased by $43, with each additional minute of flight time adding approximately $1.56 to ticket costs. The burden was particularly pronounced for flights departing from airports above the 57th degree of latitude, such as Oslo and Helsinki, where ticket prices surged by nearly $90 due to the extended travel distances. The fare increases were not evenly distributed but were concentrated on routes departing from airports above the 50th, and especially the 57th, degree of latitude, where detours caused the greatest disruptions. Business class fares saw a steeper rise compared to economy class, reflecting both the higher cost structure of premium services and the reduced price sensitivity of business travelers.
Airlines operating on Europe-Asia routes have faced increased fuel consumption and operational costs, leading to a partial pass-through of these expenses to passengers. The competitive landscape may have also shifted, as many Asian carriers that are not covered by the flight ban can continue to use the shorter routes and therefore avoid the extra distance-related costs imposed on European airlines.
The paper suggests that airspace closures, while an effective tool of economic pressure, come with unintended economic costs for both airlines and passengers. The findings highlight the importance of strategic policy responses, emphasizing that policymakers should evaluate whether targeted support measures are needed for airlines disproportionately affected by these constraints.
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