December 2024
This paper documents a substantial change in the composition, routing and unit values of Russia’s imports in the aftermath of comprehensive trade sanctions imposed on Russia. Analysis of transaction-level trade data shows a steep decline in goods under Western trademarks — but also a rapid rise in rerouted shipments through neutral countries. These indirect routes often involved entirely new combinations of products, brands, and exporters.
This workaround was most pronounced for high-stakes goods like industrial equipment and dual-use technologies, offsetting about 20% of the original drop. In parallel, Russian importers increasingly turned to neutral-brand substitutes, recovering an additional 23–40% of lost trade.
Still, the overall picture is clear: Russia is getting fewer of the Western goods it wants — and paying more. Prices for Western-branded products rose as much as 35 percentage points, especially when sellers had publicly pledged to exit the Russian market.
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