This study provides credible estimates on the impacts of sanctions on firms in Russia. It credibly documents that total imports of sanctioned products fell by 31%, indicating that while roundabout trade and substitution were substantial, they did not fully offset the decline in sanctioned imports. Firms that had relied on to-be-sanctioned imports experienced a 14% drop in output. This importantly also includes the manufacturing and technology sectors, and even firms linked to military supply chains. Affected firms also saw a decline in government procurement sales and suffered additional losses if their upstream suppliers or downstream buyers were exposed to sanctions.
Read the full study, as yet unpublished, here.
