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In a recent Radio Free Europe/ Radio Liberty article, experts examined U.S. President Donald Trump’s call for NATO members to end imports of Russian crude if they want Washington to tighten sanctions on Moscow. The proposal would primarily affect Turkey, Hungary, and Slovakia, the only NATO countries still importing Russian oil.

“Trump’s threats so far have largely been directed at India and, to an extent, China. Turkey was never kind of in the mix. So, this is an interesting new development,” said Benjamin Hilgenstock, senior economist at the KSE Institute. Hilgenstock, who is also an Associate Fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations, noted that losing Turkey as a buyer would be a major economic setback for Moscow.

The report highlights that Turkey is now the third-largest importer of Russian crude worldwide, drawn by steep discounts and profitable refining operations that supply European markets. Yet analysts stress that Ankara’s deep energy dependence and complex political ties with both Moscow and Washington could make compliance with Trump’s demands particularly difficult.

Hilgenstock emphasized that cutting off Turkey’s imports would force Russia to offer even steeper discounts to retain alternative buyers, adding pressure to an already strained economy. However, he noted that the political costs of such moves for NATO members remain high.

To explore Benjamin Hilgenstock’s full commentary and the broader discussion on Trump’s emerging sanctions strategy, read the complete article by the team at Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

Further Reading

Energy exports play a crucial role in Russia’s economy and have long served as a source of geopolitical leverage over dependent countries. Sanctions targeting the energy sector aim to reduce state revenues and diminish Russia’s geopolitical influence. Explore the latest research on sanctions against Russia and its energy industry in the Sanctions Portal Evidence Base section.

For more expert analysis from the KSE Institute, visit the institute’s homepage.

As Western leaders weigh new sanctions against Russia, The Guardian highlights concerns about Moscow’s ability to sustain its war economy. The article examines President Donald Trump’s renewed threats of financial measures and the ongoing debate among U.S. and EU officials over coordinated sanctions. Despite extensive restrictions since 2022, Russia’s economy continues to operate — but experts warn that the underlying picture may be far bleaker than official data reveal.

“Russia’s official economic data are questionable. The situation is worse than it appears. Inflation and deficits are understated, and GDP is overstated. Russia will struggle to maintain the war at its current level by mid-2026,” said Torbjörn Becker, Director of the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE).

The Guardian’s report also explores the limits of current sanctions, loopholes in oil and gas trade, and the role of non-Western intermediaries that help Moscow bypass restrictions. With Trump signaling openness to “major sanctions” if NATO allies follow suit, analysts caution that both political will and global coordination will determine whether future measures can truly pressure Russia’s economy.

To read the full article and Torbjörn Becker’s analysis, visit The Guardian/ CNN Prima News.

Further Reading

Energy exports play a crucial role in Russia’s economy and have long served as a source of geopolitical leverage over dependent countries. Sanctions targeting the energy sector aim to reduce state revenues and diminish Russia’s geopolitical influence. Explore the latest research on sanctions against Russia and its energy industry in the Sanctions Portal Evidence Base section.

For more expert analysis from SITE, visit SITE’s website.

Despite more than 20,000 sanctions imposed on Russia since 2022, the country’s economy continues to grow. In a recent Sweden’s Herald article, experts analyzed how Russia has managed to adapt to Western restrictions while maintaining its war financing capabilities ahead of the Trump–Putin summit in Alaska.

Sanctions expert Maria Perrotta Berlin, Assistant Professor at the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE) and researcher at the Stockholm School of Economics, explained that although sanctions have constrained Russia’s access to capital, they have not achieved their intended impact.

“The sanctions are large and powerful, but they have always come a little too late. Russia has had time to adapt and find ways to circumvent them — and so we have to find ways to plug the loopholes. We are always one step behind.”

The article further explored the geopolitical implications of new potential U.S. sanctions, including measures against Russia’s “shadow fleet” and countries still trading with Moscow, such as India and China. Broader discussions also touched on the sustainability of Russia’s war economy and its long-term social costs.

For a deeper look into the full analysis and Maria Perrotta Berlin’s insights, read the complete article in Sweden’s Herald here.

Further Reading

Reducing Russian income requires a comprehensive approach centered on four key areas.

• The foremost priority is limiting energy exports, as these generate major revenues and sustain Russia’s fiscal stability through their deep economic influence.
• The next step is restricting access to critical materials, components, and technologies vital for weapons production, thereby constraining Russia’s military capacity.
• A third layer focuses on broader trade and financial restrictions, designed to reduce efficiency and market access across the economy.
• Finally, sanctions such as individual travel bans and airspace restrictions serve primarily symbolic and normative purposes but also exert meaningful indirect effects by influencing public perception, political behavior, and international reputation.

Explore the latest research on sanctions against Russia in the Sanctions Portal Evidence Base section. Learn about the main sanction packages imposed by Western allies following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, as well as Russian countermeasures, by visiting the Timeline of Western Sanctions and Russian Countermeasures.

Sanctions have been the West’s main weapon against Russia since the country’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. But have they truly weakened Moscow’s war economy? Maria Perrotta Berlin, Assistant Professor at the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE), shared her insights with Sweden’s Herald, offering a critical assessment of the effectiveness of Western sanctions on Russia.

“The sanctions are large and powerful,” she explained. “But they have always come a little too late. Russia has had time to adapt and find ways to circumvent them — and so we have to find ways to plug the loopholes. We are always one step behind.”

In her commentary ahead of the upcoming Trump–Putin summit in Alaska, Maria Perrotta Berlin highlighted the paradox of a heavily sanctioned yet resilient Russian economy. Despite more than 20,000 international sanctions, exceeding those imposed on Iran, Venezuela, North Korea, and Cuba combined, Russia’s GDP continues to rise, and its wealthiest citizens are becoming richer, according to recent IMF and Forbes reports.

Maria Perrotta Berlin’s expert analysis sheds light on why sanctions alone may not be enough to weaken Russia’s financial strength, emphasizing the need for faster, coordinated global action to close remaining loopholes.

Read the full analysis on Sweden’s Herald.