News

  • Torbjörn Becker: Russia’s Economy Shows Signs of Structural Exhaustion

    Torbjörn Becker: Russia’s Economy Shows Signs of Structural Exhaustion

    Russia’s economy is facing mounting pressure as financial reserves shrink and structural weaknesses become more apparent. In a recent article published by Welt, experts examined new research from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) and the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE), highlighting how Russia’s economic position has deteriorated more than four years after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The study points to declining fiscal reserves, falling energy revenues, and persistent labor shortages as indicators that the Russian economy is entering a more vulnerable phase.

    According to the analysis, liquid assets in Russia’s sovereign wealth fund have fallen sharply from 6.5 percent of GDP at the beginning of the war to just 1.8 percent today. At the same time, the federal budget deficit exceeded the government’s annual target within the first quarter of the year, while oil and gas revenues declined by 45 percent compared with the same period a year earlier. Torbjörn Becker, Director of the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics and co-author of the study, emphasized that these developments create an important opportunity for policymakers. “This includes renewed efforts to curb Russia’s shadow fleet,” Becker noted, arguing that Russia’s growing economic vulnerabilities open a window for more effective Western policy measures.

    The article also explored broader structural challenges facing the Russian economy. Researchers highlighted the Kremlin’s increasing reliance on off-budget financing, rapid credit expansion, and indirect support from the banking sector to sustain military spending. While Russia retains the ability to mobilize financial resources, severe labor shortages, limited access to advanced technology, and constrained production capacity are becoming more significant obstacles. The study further noted Russia’s growing dependence on China, which now accounts for roughly 35 percent of the country’s foreign trade and supplies many critical civilian and military-related goods.

    The researchers argue that this dependence is creating an increasingly asymmetric relationship between Moscow and Beijing. As sanctions continue to restrict access to Western technology and markets, China’s role in Russia’s trade, finance, and technology sectors has expanded considerably. The study suggests that stricter export controls, particularly targeting sanctioned goods and military-relevant components, could further increase pressure on the Russian economy while reducing the Kremlin’s capacity to sustain long-term military expenditures.

    To explore the full analysis and Torbjörn Becker’s commentary on Russia’s economic outlook, read the complete article published by Welt. The article provides additional insights into Russia’s fiscal challenges, trade dependencies, and the policy implications of its growing economic fatigue.

    Further reading on Russia sanctions

    For further expert analysis on sanctions and Russia’s economic trajectory, visit the SITE Sanctions Hub. Explore the chronological overview of major sanction packages and Russian countermeasures by Date, Country, and Sector in the Sanctions Timeline.

    The Evidence Base section of the SITE Sanctions Hub presents the latest publications, policy reports, and research findings, offering in-depth analysis and regularly updated data.

    The Compliance Index provides a structured assessment of how effectively sanctions are implemented and enforced across jurisdictions. It offers comparative insights into compliance trends and policy performance.

    For more expert insights and media appearances from Torbjörn Becker and other specialists, visit our Media Highlights section.

  • Daniel Spiro: Russia’s Shadow Fleet Continues to Fund the War

    Daniel Spiro: Russia’s Shadow Fleet Continues to Fund the War

    A recent feature article examined how Russia’s so-called shadow fleet continues to transport vast quantities of oil through the Baltic Sea despite international sanctions and growing security concerns. While global attention has focused on tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, hundreds of tankers linked to Russia’s shadow fleet continue to move oil through the Baltic Sea, the Øresund Strait, and the Great Belt. The report highlights how rising oil prices and the disappearance of the discount previously applied to Russian crude have significantly increased revenues for the Kremlin.

    Economic Importance of the Shadow Fleet

    The article features commentary from Daniel Spiro, Professor of Economics at Uppsala University and an expert on Russia’s shadow fleet. According to Spiro, nearly half of Russia’s oil exports pass through the Baltic Sea, with a substantial share transported by vessels operating outside the traditional Western regulatory framework.

    “Almost half of all Russian oil exports are transported through the Baltic Sea, and a large portion of that oil is carried by the shadow fleet,” Daniel Spiro explained.

    He noted that these shipments generate revenues worth hundreds of billions of Swedish kronor annually, representing a significant contribution to Russia’s economy and its ability to sustain military operations in Ukraine.

    How Russia Adapted to the Oil Price Cap

    The article traces the origins of the shadow fleet to the G7, EU, and Australian oil price cap introduced in December 2022. The mechanism was designed to keep Russian oil on global markets while limiting Moscow’s earnings. In response, Russia developed an extensive network of tankers registered under various flags and operating with limited transparency.

    Daniel Spiro argues that Russia recognized the strategic importance of controlling maritime transport. By building a shadow fleet, Moscow has not only reduced the impact of the price cap but has also increased its resilience against future sanctions. As a result, Russia has maintained substantial export volumes while adapting to changing restrictions imposed by Western governments.

    Growing Pressure and Security Risks

    The report also discusses increasing efforts by NATO and European governments to disrupt the shadow fleet’s operations. New sanctions, inspections, and enforcement measures have been introduced across Europe, while Ukraine has targeted Russian oil infrastructure in the Gulf of Finland. According to data cited in the article, these attacks have reduced export volumes, although higher oil prices have largely offset revenue losses.

    At the same time, concerns are growing over the environmental and security risks posed by aging tankers operating in heavily trafficked waterways. Experts warn that an accident involving a fully loaded shadow fleet vessel in the Baltic Sea or Øresund Strait could result in one of the largest oil spills in European history.

    Future Policy Options

    The article concludes by examining possible future responses. Daniel Spiro notes that governments could impose stricter controls, increase inspections, or introduce additional operational requirements for vessels transiting strategic waterways. While more aggressive measures remain possible, he cautions that actions directly targeting access to the Baltic Sea would carry significant geopolitical risks.

    To read the full EFN article, refer to the original publication.

    Further Reading

    Readers interested in the broader topic of sanctions on Russia and Russian economic retaliation can explore our dedicated online portal, which brings together expert analysis, data, and research on the evolving sanctions landscape. The platform serves as a resource hub for researchers, journalists, policymakers, and the public seeking evidence-based insights into sanctions policy and Russia’s economic adaptation.

    Explore the Sanctions Timeline, which provides a chronological overview of major sanctions packages imposed by Western allies in response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, alongside Russian countermeasures and domestic adaptation policies.

    Visit the Evidence Base to access the latest publications, policy briefs, and research reports examining sanctions effectiveness and economic impacts.

    For additional media appearances and expert commentary from Daniel Spiro and other members of our research team, explore our Media Highlights section.

  • Torbjörn Becker: Russia’s War Economy Faces Growing Constraints

    Torbjörn Becker: Russia’s War Economy Faces Growing Constraints

    In a recent Reuters article, journalists examine Russia’s wartime economy and the growing signs of strain emerging after more than four years of full-scale war against Ukraine. The report highlights a new study by researchers from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) and the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE), which analyzes the mounting economic pressures facing the Kremlin. Their study, Endgame: Russia’s War Economy Reaches Its Limits, points to declining fiscal reserves, falling energy revenues, and severe labor shortages that are weakening Russia’s economic outlook.

    Torbjörn Becker on Russia’s Growing Vulnerabilities

    The analysis featured commentary from Torbjörn Becker, Director of the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE) and co-author of the study. According to the research, Russia’s liquid sovereign wealth fund assets have fallen sharply since the start of the war, while government budget deficits have already exceeded official targets. Torbjörn Becker emphasized that Russia’s growing economic vulnerabilities create an opportunity for more effective Western policy measures. He argued that renewed efforts to restrict Russia’s shadow fleet, strengthen export controls, and reduce export revenues could significantly increase economic pressure on Moscow.

    Structural Challenges Facing the Russian Economy

    The Reuters article also explores the structural challenges limiting Russia’s ability to sustain military spending. Researchers note that the Kremlin increasingly relies on off-budget financing, rapid credit expansion, and indirect support from the banking sector to fund the war effort. At the same time, labor shortages have reached record levels, constraining production capacity across key sectors.

    The study further highlights Russia’s growing dependence on China, which now accounts for approximately 35 percent of Russian foreign trade and supplies many critical dual-use technologies and military-related components. According to the researchers, this dependence has created an increasingly asymmetric relationship in which Beijing holds greater economic leverage over Moscow.

    Policy Recommendations for Western Governments

    A key recommendation discussed in the article is the introduction of stronger trade and sanctions measures by Western governments. Torbjörn Becker and his co-authors argue that tightening sanctions enforcement and targeting channels used to circumvent existing restrictions could have a greater impact than imposing broad new sanctions alone. The study also underscores the importance of limiting access to critical technologies and reducing Russia’s ability to finance military activities through export earnings.

    To read the full Reuters article, please refer to the original Reuters coverage of the study Endgame: Russia’s War Economy Reaches Its Limits.

    Further Reading

    Readers interested in the broader topic of sanctions on Russia and Russian economic retaliation can explore our dedicated online portal, which brings together expert analysis, data, and research on the evolving sanctions landscape. The platform provides valuable resources for researchers, journalists, policymakers, and the wider public seeking evidence-based insights into sanctions policy and economic resilience.

    Explore the Sanctions Timeline, which provides a chronological overview of major sanctions packages imposed by Western allies in response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, alongside Russian countermeasures and domestic adaptation policies.

    Visit the Evidence Base to access the latest publications, policy briefs, and research reports examining the effectiveness and impact of sanctions:

    For additional media appearances and expert commentary from Torbjörn Becker and other members of our research team, explore our Media Highlights section:

    As discussions about Russia’s economic outlook continue, Torbjörn Becker’s analysis provides important evidence on the challenges facing the Russian war economy and the policy options available to Western governments.

  • Petras Katinas on the EU’s 21st Sanctions Package

    Petras Katinas on the EU’s 21st Sanctions Package

    The European Union is preparing its 21st sanctions package against Russia, aiming to intensify economic pressure amid the ongoing war in Ukraine. In a recent article by Lithuania’s national broadcaster LRT, experts examined what additional measures could realistically achieve. The feature explored whether new restrictions can significantly undermine Russia’s war financing and long-term economic stability.

    Petras Katinas, Research Fellow in Climate, Energy and Defence within the Energy and Security Programme and the Open Climate Programme at RUSI Europe, offered a measured assessment of the proposed steps. Speaking to LRT, Petras Katinas explained that each sanctions round has gradually expanded restrictions on trade, finance, and energy. However, he cautioned that the impact of new measures depends on timing and market conditions.

    “I would say that a complete ban on the provision of maritime services would be a very strong measure, but for this the gas and oil market must stabilize, and no one knows when that will happen,” said Katinas.

    According to Petras Katinas, sanctions are most effective when they close loopholes and strengthen enforcement mechanisms. The LRT article notes that policymakers are considering expanded limits on energy exports, dual-use goods, and financial channels that enable Russia to bypass earlier restrictions. Analysts also discussed the importance of coordination with international partners to prevent circumvention through third countries. While sanctions alone may not immediately halt Russia’s war effort, they shape the broader economic outlook and increase long-term costs for the Kremlin.

    The cumulative impact of 21 sanction packages reflects the EU’s sustained commitment to economic pressure. Petras Katinas emphasized that unity among member states remains critical. Without alignment on measures such as maritime service bans, enforcement gaps could weaken overall policy impact. The article concludes that the next sanctions round will test both Europe’s resolve and its ability to balance economic stability with geopolitical objectives.

    To read the full interview and Petras Katinas’ expert analysis on the EU’s 21st sanctions package, visit the complete article on LRT’s website.

    Explore Sanctions on Russia and Russian Economic Retaliation

    For further expert analysis on sanctions and Russia’s economic trajectory, visit the SITE Sanctions Hub. Explore the chronological overview of major sanction packages and Russian countermeasures by Date, Country, and Sector in the Sanctions Timeline.

    The Evidence Base section of the SITE Sanctions Hub presents the latest publications, policy reports, and research findings, offering in-depth analysis and regularly updated data.

    The Compliance Index provides a structured assessment of how effectively sanctions are implemented and enforced across jurisdictions. It offers comparative insights into compliance trends and policy performance.

  • Maria Perrotta Berlin: Mounting Pressure on Russia’s Economy

    Maria Perrotta Berlin: Mounting Pressure on Russia’s Economy

    Russia’s economic outlook is facing new uncertainty as financial and structural pressures intensify. In a recent feature by EFN, Maria Perrotta Berlin shared insights on how mounting constraints are narrowing the Kremlin’s policy options. The article explores how prolonged war spending, inflation risks, and sanctions are creating fresh challenges for President Vladimir Putin.

    Maria Perrotta Berlin, Assistant Professor at the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE), explained that Russia’s room for maneuver is shrinking. While the economy has shown resilience since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, she noted that several buffers are weakening. Fiscal reserves are under strain, borrowing costs remain elevated, and inflation continues to pressure households. According to Maria Perrotta Berlin, these trends suggest that policy trade-offs are becoming more difficult and costly.

    “You can start to sense a growing concern in the Kremlin. We saw this clearly in the middle of last year when the government presented its new budget. In the 2026 budget, they increased both VAT and corporate taxes and explicitly linked these hikes to the need to finance the war. That was the first time they openly made that connection. It signals that financial resources are becoming increasingly constrained,” said Maria Perrotta Berlin.

    Perrotta Berlin also emphasized that economic resilience does not eliminate vulnerability. Instead, it often masks underlying imbalances that surface over time. As EFN reports, the combination of sustained sanctions, restricted capital access, and domestic economic pressures is creating a new phase of uncertainty. These developments raise important questions about Russia’s medium-term stability and its capacity to finance prolonged geopolitical ambitions.

    To read the full analysis and Maria Perrotta Berlin’s commentary, access the complete article published by EFN.

    Further Reading: Russia’s Wartime Economy and Sanctions Impact

    For deeper insight into sanctions on Russia, explore SITE’s report, Financing the Russian War Economy. The study analyzes Russia’s budget deficit, wartime spending, energy revenues, and fiscal sustainability under Western sanctions. It offers data-driven insight into Russia’s war financing capacity and economic vulnerabilities.

    For more on sanctions policy and economic pressure tools, visit the SITE Sanctions Hub Evidence Base.

    Do Economic Sanctions Work? Evidence and Policy Lessons

    The impact of economic sanctions remains debated. Sanctions on Russia have renewed questions about growth, fiscal stability, and war financing.

    The FREE Network policy brief, “The Effects of Sanctions,” by Maria Perrotta Berlin, examines when sanctions succeed, their risks, and lessons for future design.

  • Torbjörn Becker on Putin’s Kazakhstan Summit and Economic Outlook

    Torbjörn Becker on Putin’s Kazakhstan Summit and Economic Outlook

    Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent summit in Kazakhstan has drawn international attention amid mounting economic and political pressure. In a feature by Sveriges Radio, the discussions focused on whether the meeting signals a strategic breakthrough or a diplomatic rescue effort for the Kremlin. The coverage examined Russia’s economic position as Western sanctions continue to reshape trade flows and political alliances.

    Torbjörn Becker, Director of the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE), shared his view on the broader implications of the summit. He noted that high-level meetings with regional partners can serve both symbolic and practical purposes. According to Torbjörn Becker, Russia seeks to demonstrate resilience and maintain strategic partnerships despite sanctions from the EU and the United States. He emphasized that while such summits project stability, they do not eliminate the structural challenges facing the Russian economy under sustained sanctions.

    The Sveriges Radio article also addressed how Russia is deepening ties with countries outside the Western alliance system. Energy cooperation, trade rerouting, and financial coordination were key themes. Torbjörn Becker explained that although Russia has managed to cushion the immediate impact of sanctions, long-term growth prospects remain constrained. Limited access to advanced technology and restricted capital flows continue to weigh on the country’s economic outlook. The discussion underscored how geopolitical positioning and economic policy are increasingly intertwined.

    To explore the full report and Torbjörn Becker’s expert commentary, read the complete article or listen to the radio interview on Sveriges Radio.

    Further Reading: Russia’s Wartime Economy and Sanctions Impact

    For deeper insight into Russia’s economic outlook and the long-term impact of sanctions, explore SITE’s report, Financing the Russian War Economy. The analysis examines Russia’s budget deficit, wartime spending, energy revenues, and fiscal sustainability under Western sanctions. It assesses how sanctions shape Russia’s war financing and future growth, expanding on Torbjörn Becker’s analysis with data-driven insights into the strengths and vulnerabilities of the wartime economy. For further research on sanctions policy and energy flows, see the latest publications in the SITE Sanctions Hub Evidence Base.

  • Petras Katinas on Risks of Easing UK Oil Sanctions

    Petras Katinas on Risks of Easing UK Oil Sanctions

    In a recent Telegraph article, the debate over the United Kingdom’s oil sanctions policy takes center stage. The piece examines concerns that easing restrictions could undermine Western pressure on Russia’s war economy. As policymakers weigh economic and political trade-offs, experts warn of the broader implications for energy markets and international coordination.

    Petras Katinas, Research Fellow in Climate, Energy and Defence within the Energy and Security Programme and the Open Climate Programme at RUSI Europe, provides insight into the risks of loosening enforcement. He cautions that any softening of oil sanctions could send the wrong signal to markets and to Moscow. Petras Katinas explains that sanctions remain a critical tool in limiting Russia’s revenue from fossil fuel exports. He notes that even incremental adjustments may weaken collective resolve and reduce the long-term policy impact. According to Petras Katinas, sustained coordination among allies is essential to maintain pressure and avoid loopholes that Russia could exploit.

    The article also highlights political tensions surrounding Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s approach to sanctions enforcement. Lawmakers and analysts are divided over whether adjustments would protect domestic energy security or dilute the sanctions regime. Broader discussions focus on the price cap mechanism, enforcement challenges, and the role of global shipping networks. The article also underscores how oil revenues continue to shape Russia’s economic outlook and its capacity to finance the war in Ukraine.

    To read the full analysis and Petras Katinas’ commentary, access the complete article on The Telegraph.

    Further Reading: Winners, Losers, and Vulnerabilities of the Hormuz Blockade

    To explore the geopolitical and economic risks surrounding global energy markets, readers can visit the FREE Network policy brief, The Hormuz Blockade: Winners, Losers, and Vulnerabilities. The analysis by Johan Gars, Daniel Spiro, and Henrik Wachtmeister examines how a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could reshape global trade flows, energy prices, and sanctions dynamics.

    Explore Sanctions on Russia and Expert Economic Analysis

    For further expert analysis on sanctions and Russia’s economic trajectory, visit the SITE Sanctions Hub. Explore the chronological overview of major sanction packages and Russian countermeasures by Date, Country, and Sector in the Sanctions Timeline.

    The Evidence Base section of the SITE Sanctions Hub presents the latest publications, policy reports, and research findings, offering in-depth analysis and regularly updated data.

    The Compliance Index provides a structured assessment of how effectively sanctions are implemented and enforced across jurisdictions. It offers comparative insights into compliance trends and policy performance.

  • Henrik Wachtmeister: China Hesitant as Russia Pushes Energy Deals

    Henrik Wachtmeister: China Hesitant as Russia Pushes Energy Deals

    In an in-depth RFE/RL analysis of the recent Beijing summit between Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, energy relations and the stalled Power of Siberia-2 gas pipeline project took center stage. While the leaders signed a series of agreements to deepen strategic cooperation, no breakthrough emerged on long-term gas commitments. Amid this backdrop, Henrik Wachtmeister offered his assessment of the evolving China-Russia energy relationship.  

    Henrik Wachtmeister, an Associate Professor at Uppsala University and a Research Fellow at the Swedish National China Centre at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs (UI), highlighted the strategic imbalance between Moscow’s urgency for energy revenue and Beijing’s cautious approach.

    “Russia needs the revenue from trade much more than China needs Russian energy,” Wachtmeister told RFE/RL, underscoring that Russia faces pressure from sanctions and shrinking markets, whereas China enjoys a wider array of energy suppliers.

    His insight sheds light on why concrete progress on Power of Siberia-2 failed to materialize at the summit, despite the project’s significance for rerouting Russian gas exports after the loss of European markets.  

    Wachtmeister also pointed to the broader implications of this asymmetry for the partnership. Even though Putin and Xi publicly pledged to deepen cooperation and signed a joint statement on expanding energy collaboration, China’s hesitance reflects its strategic diversification. With a larger economy and multiple import options, Beijing can negotiate from a position of strength, reducing the urgency to commit to new Russian gas infrastructure. This cautious stance helps explain why Russia, despite emphasizing its role as a reliable energy supplier, could not secure firm timelines or terms for the pipeline project during the talks.  

    Wachtmeister’s commentary underscores a key takeaway from the summit: while China and Russia continue to present a united front on geopolitical issues, fundamental economic dynamics shape their cooperation in energy markets. Russia’s need for guaranteed revenues contrasts with China’s strategic patience and market flexibility.  

    For the full report and Henrik Wachtmeister’s expert analysis, visit RFE/RL’s coverage of the China-Russia summit.

    Further Reading: Russia’s Wartime Economy and Sanctions Impact

    For deeper insight into Russia’s economic outlook and the long-term impact of sanctions on Russia, explore SITE’s report, Financing the Russian War Economy. This in-depth analysis examines Russia’s budget deficit, wartime spending, energy revenues, and fiscal sustainability under Western sanctions.

    For additional research on sanctions policy, energy flows, and economic pressure mechanisms, see the latest publications in the SITE Sanctions Hub Evidence Base.

    Do Economic Sanctions Work? Evidence and Policy Lessons

    The effectiveness of economic sanctions has long been debated among policymakers, economists, and security experts. Some critics argue that sanctions are blunt instruments with uncertain outcomes, while others point to cases where sustained economic pressure influenced political behavior and policy change.

    Drawing on decades of empirical evidence, the FREE Network policy brief explores the effectiveness of economic sanctions, their unintended consequences, and the lessons for future sanctions design. Read the full policy brief, “The Effects of Sanctions,” by Maria Perrotta Berlin, Assistant Professor at the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics.

  • Torbjörn Becker: War Financing Is Not Economic Strength

    Torbjörn Becker: War Financing Is Not Economic Strength

    Internal Kremlin documents reveal mounting fiscal pressure on Russia’s economy. In a recent investigation by Razomua Media, journalists reported that more than 400 oil wells have been shut down and that the federal budget faces an estimated $80 billion deficit. The article examines how declining energy revenues and rising war spending are reshaping Russia’s economic outlook.

    Russia is strong enough to continue financing the war, but that is different from being economically strong,” said Torbjörn Becker, in a speech to EU finance ministers.

    He pointed to a combination of rising inflation, a labor shortage of 1.9 million workers in industry, and the collapse of foreign investment as drivers of a vicious cycle in which increased state spending fails to generate real growth and instead fuels higher prices.

    The article also highlighted that oil refining has declined by around 10 percent for several consecutive months in 2025, while drilling activity is contracting, with roughly 400 wells closed in a single company alone, and limited technological capacity to restart them. At the same time, the federal budget deficit exceeded $80 billion in the first five months of the year, and the liquid assets of Russia’s welfare funds have fallen by half since the start of the invasion, underscoring mounting fiscal pressure beneath the surface of wartime resilience.

    The Razomua Media article also addresses the political implications of shrinking energy revenues. Oil and gas exports remain central to Russia’s state finances. Reduced production and discounted exports weaken the government’s ability to fund social programs and military operations. The report points to rising borrowing needs and potential cuts in non-military spending.

    In this context, Torbjörn Becker underscores that budget imbalances can erode investor confidence and limit future growth. He adds that Russia’s economic resilience since 2022 has relied heavily on temporary buffers, including sovereign funds and capital controls.

    To explore the full investigation and Torbjörn Becker’s commentary, read the complete article in Razomua Media.

    Further Reading: Report on Russia’s Wartime Economy

    For more on Russia’s economic outlook and the impact of sanctions, explore SITE’s report, Financing the Russian War Economy.” This in-depth report provides expert analysis of Russia’s fiscal pressures, wartime financing strategies, and long-term growth risks under sanctions. It expands on the themes highlighted by Torbjörn Becker and offers valuable insights into the sustainability of Russia’s wartime economy.

    For further expert analysis on sanctions, energy flows, and economic pressure, visit the portal’s recent publications in the Evidence Base. Learn more about sanctions against Russia and Russian economic retaliation by visiting the Sanctions Timeline.

  • Aage Borchgrevink: Victory Day Signals Pressure on Putin

    Aage Borchgrevink: Victory Day Signals Pressure on Putin

    Russia’s annual Victory Day parade has long symbolized military pride and national unity. This year, however, the celebration looks markedly different. In an interview with Dagbladet, Russia expert Aage Borchgrevink argues that the scaled-down parade reveals deeper challenges facing Vladimir Putin. For the first time in nearly two decades, the Kremlin confirmed that no military vehicles or missile systems will roll across Red Square.

    Aage Borchgrevink, senior advisor at the Norwegian Helsinki Committee and author of “Krigsherren i Kreml,” describes the decision as unprecedented.

    “It does not look good for Putin. For 25 years, Victory Day has stood at the heart of his identity project, with tanks, aircraft, and marching troops reinforcing his image as a strong and victorious leader. Scaling back the parade undermines that carefully constructed narrative,” said Borchgrevink.

    The article outlines several possible explanations for the change. Officials cite security concerns and the risk of Ukrainian drone attacks. Moscow has faced repeated long-range strikes targeting industrial and military sites. Even areas close to the Kremlin have been affected. At the same time, analysts note growing domestic pressures. Aage Borchgrevink points to economic strain, rising prices, and prolonged internet shutdowns that disrupt daily life. He argues that Russia’s civilian economy is struggling while military spending continues. Such pressures, he says, inevitably shape public sentiment.

    The broader political context also matters. Victory Day has become a platform to frame the war in Ukraine as a continuation of the Second World War. This messaging seeks to mobilize patriotic support. Yet Aage Borchgrevink believes the current situation signals vulnerability rather than strength. He notes that Russian history shows periods of instability when wars stagnate or fail. In his assessment, the reduced parade sends an unintended message about the Kremlin’s domestic and strategic challenges.

    To explore the full interview and Aage Borchgrevink’s expert analysis, read the complete article in Dagbladet via EuropeSays.

    For deeper insight into the evolving sanctions landscape and Russia’s economic outlook, visit our online portal, Sanctions on Russia & Russian Economic Retaliation. The platform offers a comprehensive chronological overview of sanction packages and countermeasuresAttachment.tiff, searchable by date, country, and sector. Readers can also explore the latest research in our Evidence Base sectionAttachment.tiff and follow ongoing expert commentary in our Media HighlightsAttachment.tiff. Together, these resources provide essential context for understanding developments discussed by Aage Borchgrevink and other leading analysts.

    Further Reading: Russia’s Strategic Actions

    For deeper insight into Russia’s broader state strategies, explore the portal, Sanctions on Russia & Russian Economic Retaliation. While focused on sanctions policy, the platform provides essential context on Russia’s overall strategic posture.