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Aftonbladet reports that Russian drones shot down in Ukraine contained ball bearings labeled “SKF,” despite sanctions banning such exports. The Gothenburg-based manufacturer SKF is subject to sanctions that prohibit sales to Russia. Yet Aftonbladet found SKF ball bearings from the company’s Chinese factory on Russian drones.

SKF denies making the parts and says they are counterfeits. According to Russian customs data and Corisk’s analysis, up to half a billion SEK in SKF-labeled products may have reached Russia through indirect or shadow trade routes.

“It is a violation of sanctions if you knowingly sell a product to, for example, Turkey and you know that the Turkish company will send it on to Russia,” Torbjörn Becker, Director of the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE) told Aftonbladet. However, he noted that proving intent remains a major legal hurdle for prosecutors.

In follow-up comments to Göteborgs-Posten, Becker reflected on the complexity of tracing such supply chains. While counterfeit products are common in Russia and other sanctioned economies, he questioned whether the country possesses the capability to reproduce high-tech components like precision ball bearings. He added that the copying might occur elsewhere before reaching Russia through parallel markets.

To read the full report and Torbjörn Becker’s expert commentary, visit Aftonbladet and Göteborgs-Posten.

Further Reading

Sanctions on trade target critical goods, technologies, and supply chains to disrupt Russia’s economic activity and limit access to resources that support its war effort. These measures aim to raise the cost of aggression by restricting exports to and imports from Russia. Explore the latest research on trade sanctions against Russia in the Sanctions Portal Evidence Base section.

Explore the main sanction packages imposed by Western allies after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Review Russian countermeasures, including retaliatory actions and domestic policies to reduce the sanctions’ impact. Visit the Timeline of Western Sanctions and Russian Countermeasures to learn more.

For more expert analysis and policy briefs from SITE, visit SITE’s website.

As Europe heads into another winter, energy security remains under close watch. In Deutsche Welle’s recent feature “Is Europe Ready for Winter?”, experts examined whether the continent’s gas reserves and diversified energy sources can withstand new geopolitical shocks, including U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on buyers of Russian gas.

“The Baltic countries have done a great job of reducing their dependence on Russian fossil fuels, while Poland has largely eliminated Russian gas,” said Petras Katinas, energy analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA). He noted that progress was “uneven” in other Visegrad countries due to limited diversification and investment in renewable energy sources.

Petras Katinas also noted that Europe’s current gas storage levels and alternative supplies provide “a solid shield” against potential disruptions. “However, rapid withdrawals and weather fluctuations can still trigger temporary price spikes or localized shortages,” Katinas told DW, emphasizing that flexibility and regional cooperation will be key to stability through the cold months.

The article also explored how Europe’s diversification efforts, shifting toward LNG imports from Norway, the United States, and Qatar, alongside expanded renewable capacity, have reduced dependence on Russian gas. Yet, Trump’s tariff threats toward countries importing Russian energy, and the recent end of gas transit through Ukraine, continue to inject uncertainty into the market. Analysts highlighted that while supplies appear sufficient, political risks could still unsettle prices.

To read Petras Katinas’s full insights and the complete analysis, visit the original article in Deutsche Welle.

Further Reading

Energy exports are vital to Russia’s economy and have long provided geopolitical leverage over energy-dependent nations. Sanctions on the energy sector seek to limit state revenues and weaken Russia’s international influence. Discover the latest studies on sanctions against Russia and its energy sector in the Sanctions Portal Evidence Base section.

Examine the key sanction packages introduced by Western allies following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Review Russia’s countermeasures, including retaliatory steps and domestic strategies to ease the sanctions’ effects. Visit the Timeline of Western Sanctions and Russian Countermeasures to learn more.

For more expert analysis from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) and Petras Katinas, visit the CREA website.

Russia’s ambitious “Power of Siberia 2” gas pipeline project aims to deliver 50 billion cubic meters of gas annually to China, strengthening energy ties between Moscow and Beijing. In a recent article titled “Power of Siberia 2: China Could Still Fail Pipeline Project with Russia”, experts discussed whether Beijing’s hesitation could stall the project despite a new agreement signed by both sides.

“For Russia, China is its most important trading partner; the reverse is not true. Power of Siberia 2 could make Russia even more dependent on its most important trading partner, China,” noted Henrik Wachtmeister of the Department of Earth Sciences at Uppsala University.

The article highlighted growing skepticism among analysts about whether China will follow through with the deal. High construction costs, uncertain financing, and Beijing’s diversified energy strategy, spanning Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, and domestic renewables, suggest that China holds the stronger position in negotiations. For Moscow, whose European gas markets have evaporated under sanctions, China’s participation is vital both economically and politically.

To read Henrik Wachtmeister’s full commentary and the broader discussion on the future of Russia-China energy cooperation, see the complete article “Power of Siberia 2: China Could Still Fail Pipeline Project with Russia.”

Further Reading

Energy exports play a crucial role in Russia’s economy and have long served as a source of geopolitical leverage over dependent countries. Sanctions targeting the energy sector aim to reduce state revenues and diminish Russia’s geopolitical influence. Explore the latest research on sanctions against Russia and its energy industry in the Sanctions Portal Evidence Base section.

For more expert analysis from the Uppsala University experts, visit the Uppsala University homepage.

In a recent Radio Free Europe/ Radio Liberty article, experts examined U.S. President Donald Trump’s call for NATO members to end imports of Russian crude if they want Washington to tighten sanctions on Moscow. The proposal would primarily affect Turkey, Hungary, and Slovakia, the only NATO countries still importing Russian oil.

“Trump’s threats so far have largely been directed at India and, to an extent, China. Turkey was never kind of in the mix. So, this is an interesting new development,” said Benjamin Hilgenstock, senior economist at the KSE Institute. Hilgenstock, who is also an Associate Fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations, noted that losing Turkey as a buyer would be a major economic setback for Moscow.

The report highlights that Turkey is now the third-largest importer of Russian crude worldwide, drawn by steep discounts and profitable refining operations that supply European markets. Yet analysts stress that Ankara’s deep energy dependence and complex political ties with both Moscow and Washington could make compliance with Trump’s demands particularly difficult.

Hilgenstock emphasized that cutting off Turkey’s imports would force Russia to offer even steeper discounts to retain alternative buyers, adding pressure to an already strained economy. However, he noted that the political costs of such moves for NATO members remain high.

To explore Benjamin Hilgenstock’s full commentary and the broader discussion on Trump’s emerging sanctions strategy, read the complete article by the team at Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

Further Reading

Energy exports play a crucial role in Russia’s economy and have long served as a source of geopolitical leverage over dependent countries. Sanctions targeting the energy sector aim to reduce state revenues and diminish Russia’s geopolitical influence. Explore the latest research on sanctions against Russia and its energy industry in the Sanctions Portal Evidence Base section.

For more expert analysis from the KSE Institute, visit the institute’s homepage.

As Western leaders weigh new sanctions against Russia, The Guardian highlights concerns about Moscow’s ability to sustain its war economy. The article examines President Donald Trump’s renewed threats of financial measures and the ongoing debate among U.S. and EU officials over coordinated sanctions. Despite extensive restrictions since 2022, Russia’s economy continues to operate — but experts warn that the underlying picture may be far bleaker than official data reveal.

“Russia’s official economic data are questionable. The situation is worse than it appears. Inflation and deficits are understated, and GDP is overstated. Russia will struggle to maintain the war at its current level by mid-2026,” said Torbjörn Becker, Director of the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE).

The Guardian’s report also explores the limits of current sanctions, loopholes in oil and gas trade, and the role of non-Western intermediaries that help Moscow bypass restrictions. With Trump signaling openness to “major sanctions” if NATO allies follow suit, analysts caution that both political will and global coordination will determine whether future measures can truly pressure Russia’s economy.

To read the full article and Torbjörn Becker’s analysis, visit The Guardian/ CNN Prima News.

Further Reading

Energy exports play a crucial role in Russia’s economy and have long served as a source of geopolitical leverage over dependent countries. Sanctions targeting the energy sector aim to reduce state revenues and diminish Russia’s geopolitical influence. Explore the latest research on sanctions against Russia and its energy industry in the Sanctions Portal Evidence Base section.

For more expert analysis from SITE, visit SITE’s website.

Despite more than 20,000 sanctions imposed on Russia since 2022, the country’s economy continues to grow. In a recent Sweden’s Herald article, experts analyzed how Russia has managed to adapt to Western restrictions while maintaining its war financing capabilities ahead of the Trump–Putin summit in Alaska.

Sanctions expert Maria Perrotta Berlin, Assistant Professor at the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE) and researcher at the Stockholm School of Economics, explained that although sanctions have constrained Russia’s access to capital, they have not achieved their intended impact.

“The sanctions are large and powerful, but they have always come a little too late. Russia has had time to adapt and find ways to circumvent them — and so we have to find ways to plug the loopholes. We are always one step behind.”

The article further explored the geopolitical implications of new potential U.S. sanctions, including measures against Russia’s “shadow fleet” and countries still trading with Moscow, such as India and China. Broader discussions also touched on the sustainability of Russia’s war economy and its long-term social costs.

For a deeper look into the full analysis and Maria Perrotta Berlin’s insights, read the complete article in Sweden’s Herald here.

Further Reading

Reducing Russian income requires a comprehensive approach centered on four key areas.

• The foremost priority is limiting energy exports, as these generate major revenues and sustain Russia’s fiscal stability through their deep economic influence.
• The next step is restricting access to critical materials, components, and technologies vital for weapons production, thereby constraining Russia’s military capacity.
• A third layer focuses on broader trade and financial restrictions, designed to reduce efficiency and market access across the economy.
• Finally, sanctions such as individual travel bans and airspace restrictions serve primarily symbolic and normative purposes but also exert meaningful indirect effects by influencing public perception, political behavior, and international reputation.

Explore the latest research on sanctions against Russia in the Sanctions Portal Evidence Base section. Learn about the main sanction packages imposed by Western allies following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, as well as Russian countermeasures, by visiting the Timeline of Western Sanctions and Russian Countermeasures.

Sanctions have been the West’s main weapon against Russia since the country’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. But have they truly weakened Moscow’s war economy? Maria Perrotta Berlin, Assistant Professor at the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE), shared her insights with Sweden’s Herald, offering a critical assessment of the effectiveness of Western sanctions on Russia.

“The sanctions are large and powerful,” she explained. “But they have always come a little too late. Russia has had time to adapt and find ways to circumvent them — and so we have to find ways to plug the loopholes. We are always one step behind.”

In her commentary ahead of the upcoming Trump–Putin summit in Alaska, Maria Perrotta Berlin highlighted the paradox of a heavily sanctioned yet resilient Russian economy. Despite more than 20,000 international sanctions, exceeding those imposed on Iran, Venezuela, North Korea, and Cuba combined, Russia’s GDP continues to rise, and its wealthiest citizens are becoming richer, according to recent IMF and Forbes reports.

Maria Perrotta Berlin’s expert analysis sheds light on why sanctions alone may not be enough to weaken Russia’s financial strength, emphasizing the need for faster, coordinated global action to close remaining loopholes.

Read the full analysis on Sweden’s Herald.