News

Russia is facing one of its most serious economic setbacks since the start of the full-scale invasion. The largest Polish-language web portal and online news platform Onet.pl analyzes how collapsing fuel exports, intensified Ukrainian drone attacks, and expanding Western sanctions are undermining the Kremlin’s war economy. September marked a historic low for Russian oil and gas sales, raising concerns about the country’s ability to sustain long-term military spending.

“The significant decline in Russian petroleum product exports is primarily due to Ukrainian drone attacks,” said Petras Katinas, expert at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).

Petras Katinas noted that Russia is experiencing shortages severe enough to trigger government restrictions on gasoline and diesel exports. According to Katinas, this shift reflects both the scale of Ukrainian strikes and Russia’s growing vulnerability across its energy sector.

The article also outlines broader pressures weighing on Moscow. EU action against Russia’s “shadow fleet,” a looming ban on liquefied petroleum gas, and new U.S. sanctions targeting Rosneft and Lukoil signal tightening constraints on the Kremlin’s revenue streams. With the IMF lowering Russia’s growth forecast and drone attacks damaging key refineries from Kaliningrad to Kamchatka, the report highlights a convergence of factors that could reshape the war’s economic trajectory.

To read the full analysis, including Petras Katinas’s expert insights, access the complete article at Onet.pl.

Further Reading

Energy exports play a crucial role in Russia’s economy and have long served as a source of geopolitical leverage over dependent countries. Sanctions targeting the energy sector aim to reduce state revenues and diminish Russia’s geopolitical influence. Explore the latest research on sanctions against Russia and its energy industry in the Sanctions Portal Evidence Base section.

A joint investigation by leading Baltic media outlets, including LRT, 15min, Eesti Ekspress, and Neka Personiga, has revealed that several companies in Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia continue to supply fuel to Russia’s shadow fleet, despite ongoing Western sanctions. The report found that tankers operated by Fast Bunkering and its affiliates have been refueling vessels suspected of helping Moscow circumvent restrictions and sustain oil exports vital to its war economy.

“Bunkering companies need to conduct thorough due diligence, maintain transparent documentation, and comply with all legal requirements,” said Petras Katinas, senior fellow at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).

Petras Katinas emphasized that this includes verifying compliance with G7+ price caps and ensuring that tankers show no shadow fleet characteristics, such as lacking valid insurance, engaging with sanctioned entities, or breaching maritime safety regulations.

The investigation tracked hundreds of refueling operations in Danish and Baltic waters between 2024 and 2025, with several vessels later added to EU, U.S., or UK sanctions lists. Analysts warned that such practices undermine international sanctions enforcement and continue to fund Russia’s war in Ukraine. The report also highlighted Fast Bunkering’s opaque ownership structure and past allegations of sanctions evasion across the region.

To read the full investigation and Petras Katinas’s expert commentary, visit Hirado.hu or LRT’s website. For more expert insights from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, visit the CREA website.

Further Reading

Energy exports play a crucial role in Russia’s economy and have long served as a source of geopolitical leverage over dependent countries. Sanctions targeting the energy sector aim to reduce state revenues and diminish Russia’s geopolitical influence. Explore the latest research on sanctions against Russia and its energy industry in the Sanctions Portal Evidence Base section.

Benjamin Hilgenstock explains how new U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil could deepen Russia’s budget strain in the Financial Times.

The United States has imposed its toughest sanctions yet on Russia’s energy sector, targeting Rosneft and Lukoil, the country’s two largest oil producers. In a recent Financial Times analysis, experts assessed how these measures might reshape global oil flows and pressure Moscow’s war financing amid a tightening fiscal landscape.

“The sanctions come at a time of heightened vulnerability for the Russian budget”, said Benjamin Hilgenstock, the head of macroeconomic research and strategy at Kyiv School of Economics Institute.

He also noted that energy revenues, which make up about a quarter of federal income, have already dropped 20 percent year-on-year in 2025, underscoring how Washington’s latest actions could intensify the squeeze on the Kremlin’s finances.

The Financial Times report also examined market reactions, with Brent crude prices climbing 9 percent as traders assessed the impact of disrupted Russian exports. Analysts cautioned that while China and India may initially resist pressure from Washington, secondary sanctions could force refiners to diversify supply, testing Russia’s ability to sustain production and revenue.

To read Benjamin Hilgenstock’s full commentary and the complete Financial Times article, visit FT.com. For more expert analysis from the KSE Institute, visit the institute’s homepage.

Further Reading

Energy exports play a crucial role in Russia’s economy and have long served as a source of geopolitical leverage over dependent countries. Sanctions targeting the energy sector aim to reduce state revenues and diminish Russia’s geopolitical influence. Explore the latest research on sanctions against Russia and its energy industry in the Sanctions Portal Evidence Base section.

In a new article from the Associated Press (AP), the U.S. and European Union have announced fresh sanctions targeting Russia’s leading oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, aiming to curb revenues funding Moscow’s war in Ukraine. The move marks the Trump administration’s first major sanctions package targeting Russia’s oil, since returning to office, signaling a tougher stance toward the Kremlin’s war economy and its global oil trade.

“The sanctions are large and powerful, but they have always come a little too late,” said Maria Perrotta Berlin, Assistant Professor at the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE).

She explained that Russia’s extensive network of traders and its “shadow fleet” have enabled it to adjust to previous rounds of restrictions. However, Maria Perrotta Berlin noted that the latest measures, which threaten secondary sanctions on Indian and Chinese refiners, could have a more immediate chilling effect on Russian oil exports.

The AP article also highlights how these sanctions aim to pressure President Vladimir Putin into accepting President Donald Trump’s proposal for an “immediate ceasefire.” Analysts caution that while the sanctions may not cripple Russia’s economy overnight, they could increase long-term costs, reduce oil revenue, and expose vulnerabilities in Moscow’s energy strategy. The EU’s parallel move to ban Russian LNG imports and sanction 117 additional tankers adds to the growing pressure on Russia’s fossil fuel sector.

To read Maria Perrotta Berlin’s full commentary and detailed analysis on how Trump’s sanctions shifted Russia’s oil policy, see the full AP article in the Associated Press here.

Further Reading

Energy exports play a crucial role in Russia’s economy and have long served as a source of geopolitical leverage over dependent countries. Sanctions targeting the energy sector aim to reduce state revenues and diminish Russia’s geopolitical influence. Explore the latest research on sanctions against Russia and its energy industry in the Sanctions Portal Evidence Base section.

Explore the main sanction packages imposed by Western allies after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Review Russian countermeasures, including retaliatory actions and domestic policies to reduce the sanctions’ impact. Visit the Timeline of Western Sanctions and Russian Countermeasures to learn more.

For more expert analysis from SITE, visit SITE’s website.

In a recent India.com analysis titled “US Oil War: How Washington’s Bid to Stop Putin Is Forcing India and China to Ditch the Dollar,” experts revealed how Russia’s budget strain is deepening under U.S. financial sanctions that are reshaping global oil markets. The report highlights Washington’s aggressive use of secondary sanctions on Russian energy giants Rosneft and Lukoil, pressuring countries like India and China to balance economic opportunity with Western compliance and driving major shifts across Asia’s energy landscape.

“Russia’s budget is under strain, Putin has consistently demonstrated his willingness to accept economic pain rather than appear defeated,” said Benjamin Hilgenstock from the Kyiv School of Economics.

His assessment underscores how Russia continues to absorb financial pressure in pursuit of political goals despite a 20% drop in energy revenues this year.

The article situates Hilgenstock’s analysis within a broader discussion of sanctions-driven shifts in global finance. From rupee-ruble and yuan-based transactions to expanding efforts by India and China to bypass the dollar. These developments, India.com reports, could accelerate long-term “de-dollarization,” challenging the dominance of the U.S. financial system while complicating Western efforts to isolate Russia.

To read the full article and Benjamin Hilgenstock’s commentary, visit India.com.

Further Reading

Reducing Russian income requires a comprehensive approach centered on four key areas.

• The foremost priority is limiting energy exports, as these generate major revenues and sustain Russia’s fiscal stability through their deep economic influence.
• The next step is restricting access to critical materials, components, and technologies vital for weapons production, thereby constraining Russia’s military capacity.
• A third layer focuses on broader trade and financial restrictions, designed to reduce efficiency and market access across the economy.
• Finally, sanctions such as individual travel bans and airspace restrictions serve primarily symbolic and normative purposes but also exert meaningful indirect effects by influencing public perception, political behavior, and international reputation.

Explore the latest research on sanctions against Russia in the Sanctions Portal Evidence Base section. Learn about the main sanction packages imposed by Western allies following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, as well as Russian countermeasures, by visiting the Timeline of Western Sanctions and Russian Countermeasures.

Norway faces a new sanctions scandal after revelations about defense firm Kongsberg Gruppen. NRK reports that Kongsberg’s high-tech equipment allegedly reached Russia through a third-party buyer. The devices may now help Moscow monitor NATO naval activity in the Barents Sea. The Norwegian Helsinki Committee (NKH) has asked the authorities to investigate possible violations of export laws.

“Russia is waging an aggressive war against Ukraine, and any support of its military capabilities by a Norwegian company is irresponsible and endangers regional security,” said Aage Borchgrevink, senior adviser at NHC.

His remarks highlight growing concern over weak export controls and Norway’s role in preventing dual-use technology from reaching Russia.

Norwegian officials responded quickly. The government called on the PST counterintelligence agency to open an investigation. Lawmakers described the situation as alarming and said it undermines trust in Norway’s export control system. Deputy Foreign Minister Eivind Vad Petersson confirmed that the case merits scrutiny, stressing that Norwegian technology must not “fall into the wrong hands.”

The case echoes the 1985 “Kongsberg–Toshiba” scandal, when similar exports reached the Soviet Union. That incident reshaped Norway’s defense oversight for decades. Aage Borchgrevink urged transparency from Kongsberg and full clarification from the company.

Read the full article and Aage Borchgrevink’s commentary on Portal Morski.

For more expert insights from the Norwegian Helsinki Committee (NHC), visit the NHC website.

Further Reading

Reducing Russia’s income requires a coordinated strategy targeting energy exports, critical materials, and key technologies that sustain its economy and military. Broader trade, financial, and military sanctions further weaken Russia’s war efforts and international standing.

Explore the latest research on sanctions against Russia in the Sanctions Portal Evidence Base section. Learn about the main sanction packages imposed by Western allies following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, as well as Russian countermeasures, by visiting the Timeline of Western Sanctions and Russian Countermeasures.

Foreign Policy has published a new analysis titled “Will Trump’s Russia Oil Sanctions Finally Sway Putin?”, exploring the far-reaching impact of the latest U.S. sanctions targeting Russia’s energy sector. The piece highlights how the Trump administration’s sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil, Russia’s largest state-linked oil companies, aim to cut off crucial oil export revenues that fund the Kremlin’s ongoing war in Ukraine.

According to Petras Katinas, an analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) in Finland, these sanctions represent a significant escalation in Washington’s strategy:

“These sanctions touch all Russian crude oil, by pipeline and by sea,” Katinas explained. “The administration didn’t go after specific refiners—they went after the companies and their subsidiaries.”

This broad targeting, Katinas noted, extends legal and financial risk to any global company that trades with Rosneft or Lukoil, amplifying the sanctions’ global deterrent effect and reshaping energy market behavior.

The Foreign Policy article situates these measures within a broader Western sanctions campaign aimed at isolating Russia’s energy trade. Following similar actions by the European Union and the United Kingdom, these sanctions mark a unified transatlantic effort to weaken Russia’s war economy.

To read Petras Katinas’s full commentary and the complete Foreign Policy article, visit Foreign Policy. For more expert analysis from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), visit the institute’s homepage.

Further Reading

Energy exports play a crucial role in Russia’s economy and have long served as a source of geopolitical leverage over dependent countries. Sanctions targeting the energy sector aim to reduce state revenues and diminish Russia’s geopolitical influence. Explore the latest research on sanctions against Russia and its energy industry in the Sanctions Portal Evidence Base section.

Despite multiple rounds of Western sanctions, Russian drones and missiles continue to contain Western-made components. In Deutsche Welle’s report “Western parts in Russian drones: Are sanctions working?” KSE expert Benjamin Hilgenstock joins the discussion on why export controls have struggled to close sanctions gaps against Russia.

“Export controls on many of these goods were imposed right at the beginning of the major Russian offensive, in the spring of 2022. Yet, many of these sanctioned components still reach Russia through complex trade networks involving intermediaries in countries like China, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, and Kazakhstan,” says Benjamin Hilgenstock, a senior economist at the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE).

The DW article outlines how these indirect supply chains, often beyond EU jurisdiction, allow restricted technology to re-enter Russian markets. Hilgenstock highlighted that while sanctions raise costs and slow production in Russia, “there are still gaps, and these gaps could be closed.” He also pointed to the financial sector as a model, suggesting that manufacturers of restricted goods should face stronger due diligence obligations to prevent diversion.

For the full analysis and Benjamin Hilgenstock’s commentary on sanctions enforcement and export controls, read the complete article on Deutsche Welle here.

Further Reading

Reducing Russia’s capacity to sustain its war against Ukraine demands a comprehensive strategy built around four core pillars.

• The first priority is curbing energy exports, which provide crucial revenues and underpin Russia’s fiscal resilience through their far-reaching economic impact.
• Next is restricting access to essential materials, components, and technologies used in weapons manufacturing, a key step in limiting Russia’s military production capabilities.
• A third dimension involves tightening broader trade and financial restrictions to diminish economic efficiency and restrict market access.
• Finally, sanctions such as individual travel bans and airspace closures play a primarily symbolic and normative role, yet they also exert indirect influence by shaping public opinion, political conduct, and Russia’s international standing.

Explore the latest research on sanctions against Russia in the Sanctions Portal Evidence Base section. Learn about the main sanction packages imposed by Western allies following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, as well as Russian countermeasures, by visiting the Timeline of Western Sanctions and Russian Countermeasures.

A wave of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries has caused widespread gasoline shortages across the country. These strikes deal a direct blow to Russia’s revenues from its crucial energy sector.

In a feature by Finland’s public broadcaster YLE, experts examined the coordinated attacks and their growing economic impact. At least 14 of Russia’s 38 refineries were damaged, disrupting about 20 percent of national refining capacity. The campaign marks a new phase in Ukraine’s effort to erode Russia’s revenues and weaken its war economy.

“They remind the Russian people that there is a war going on in Ukraine. But it also hits Russian revenues. Russia’s oil and gas revenues are absolutely crucial for financing the offensive war against Ukraine,” said Torbjörn Becker, Director of the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics.

Torbjörn Becker also highlights how economic pressure has become a key element in Ukraine’s broader defense strategy.

The article also discussed the economic and political fallout within Russia. Gasoline shortages have been recorded in at least 21 regions, forcing authorities to extend export bans and impose rationing. Analysts warned that sustained attacks could force refinery shutdowns, hinder exports, and damage Russia’s reputation as a stable energy supplier. Becker added that the strikes might create ripple effects across global energy markets, amplifying uncertainty.

To explore the full article and Torbjörn Becker’s insights, read the complete report on YLE here. For more expert analysis from the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics, visit SITE’s webpage.

Further Reading

Reducing Russia’s financial capabilities to wage the unjust war against Ukraine requires a comprehensive approach centered on four key areas.

• The foremost priority is limiting energy exports, as these generate major revenues and sustain Russia’s fiscal stability through their deep economic influence.
• The next step is restricting access to critical materials, components, and technologies vital for weapons production, thereby constraining Russia’s military capacity.
• A third layer focuses on broader trade and financial restrictions, designed to reduce efficiency and market access across the economy.
• Finally, sanctions such as individual travel bans and airspace restrictions serve primarily symbolic and normative purposes but also exert meaningful indirect effects by influencing public perception, political behavior, and international reputation.

Explore the latest research on sanctions against Russia in the Sanctions Portal Evidence Base section. Learn about the main sanction packages imposed by Western allies following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, as well as Russian countermeasures, by visiting the Timeline of Western Sanctions and Russian Countermeasures.

A Russian cargo ship tied to Russia’s growing shadow fleet docked near Finland’s Olkiluoto nuclear power plant, raising fresh security concerns across Northern Europe. According to Dagens Nyheter, this covert network of oil tankers continues to operate beyond Western oversight despite years of sanctions. Henrik Wachtmeister’s analysis highlights how Russia’s growing shadow fleet enables Moscow to sustain vital energy exports and weaken the impact of Western restrictions.

“The Russian shadow fleet has grown explosively. In total, it may include 600–1,000 tankers that transport 90 percent of all Russian crude oil,” said Henrik Wachtmeister, Associate Professor of Energy Systems in the Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development at Uppsala University.

Wachtmeister’s analysis reveals how this vast fleet enables Russia to sustain exports and weaken the impact of Western restrictions.

The DN article describes the vessel Scanlark, which sails under a Caribbean flag and carries a mainly Russian crew. German special forces raided the ship earlier after suspecting intelligence activity. Finnish authorities, including the Coast Guard and Customs, have now increased surveillance. They warn that Russia’s shadow fleet could support hybrid warfare against Europe’s critical infrastructure.

To read the full feature and Henrik Wachtmeister’s expert commentary on Russia’s shadow fleet and its global implications, visit Dagens Nyheter.

Further Reading

Cutting Russia’s income demands a coordinated strategy that targets energy exports, key materials, and critical technologies. Broader trade, financial, and military sanctions continue to weaken its war efforts and global influence.

For deeper insights on how sanctions affect the Russian economy, visit the Sanctions Portal Evidence Base. Learn more about Western sanction packages and Russian countermeasures in the Timeline of Western Sanctions and Russian Countermeasures.