News

Questions about public procurement and Russia-linked companies are gaining attention in Sweden. A recent investigation by Svenska Dagbladet examined a purchase by the Swedish Maritime Administration. The agency acquired an electric pilot boat from a supplier with indirect links to business networks tied to Gunvor Group and its co-founder Torbjörn Törnqvist. As a result, the case has sparked debate about transparency and risk management in public contracts.

In the article, Torbjörn Becker, Director of the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE), stressed that authorities must examine supplier networks carefully. He noted that companies may have complex ownership structures that hide geopolitical risks. Therefore, thorough due diligence is essential before signing contracts with international suppliers.

Moreover, the discussion reflects broader concerns across Europe. Governments are trying to limit hidden economic ties to Russia. At the same time, agencies must ensure that suppliers comply with sanctions rules and security standards. Consequently, experts say procurement processes must include stronger checks on ownership and business connections.

To explore the full investigation and Torbjörn Becker’s expert commentary, read the complete article in Svenska Dagbladet.

Russia’s shadow fleet continues to transport vast quantities of crude oil through European waters despite international sanctions. In a recent investigation, The Sunday Times reported that sanctioned tankers linked to Russia carried an estimated €3.7 billion worth of crude oil through Ireland’s maritime territory in 2025. Irish Naval Service intelligence recorded 92 sanctioned vessels entering Ireland’s exclusive economic zone during the year, completing 207 passages while carrying roughly 10.2 million tonnes of cargo oil.

Petras Katinas, an analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) and Research Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), highlighted the environmental dangers posed by Russia’s shadow fleet. According to Petras Katinas, many of these vessels operate with limited transparency, often lacking proper insurance and disabling tracking systems.

“The biggest question we need to ask is, who will pay for clean-up if there is an oil spill?” Petras Katinas noted.

He warned that if a spill occurs near EU shores without clear insurance coverage, the cost of cleanup could fall on European governments and taxpayers, potentially reaching hundreds of millions of euros.

The investigation also explored how Russia has maintained oil exports despite Western sanctions. Since the invasion of Ukraine, Russian tankers have shipped roughly four billion barrels of oil through European shipping lanes. Much of this oil now flows to India and China, with exports rising sharply in recent years. Meanwhile, European naval and intelligence services have intensified monitoring efforts, citing concerns about maritime safety, environmental damage, and possible security threats linked to shadow fleet activity.

To explore the full investigation and Petras Katinas’ commentary, read the complete article.

Further Reading

KSE Institute has released a special review, “Emerging and Unsanctioned Shadow Fleet,” examining the new vessels Russia added to its shadow fleet to transport crude oil and petroleum products. The study also analyzes Russian shadow tankers that operated between January 2024 and July 2025 and remain unsanctioned.

The United Kingdom is considering stronger action against vessels linked to Russia’s so-called shadow fleet. These ships transport Russian oil while avoiding Western sanctions. According to a recent article, British officials are exploring options to seize suspicious tankers operating near European waters. The proposal could increase pressure on Moscow’s oil exports and raise tensions with Russia.

The debate comes as Russia’s energy revenues show signs of decline. Yuliia Pavytska, a sanctions expert at the KSE Institute, highlighted this trend while discussing the broader economic outlook. According to Yuliia Pavytska, the Kremlin’s oil and gas revenues fell by 24 percent in 2025. As a result, they now represent about 22 percent of government income. In 2022, these revenues accounted for roughly 41 percent. Therefore, Yuliia Pavytska noted that sanctions and market shifts are gradually weakening Russia’s fiscal position.

Meanwhile, security concerns about the shadow fleet continue to grow. Intelligence reports show dozens of suspicious vessels moving through the English Channel and the Baltic Sea. Many ships operate under false flags or unclear ownership structures. Consequently, Western governments see the fleet as a key tool for sanctions evasion.

At the same time, policymakers debate how far enforcement should go. Seizing vessels could disrupt Russian exports, but it also carries escalation risks. Some experts suggest that enforcement actions would be safer in distant waters rather than near the Baltic or Arctic regions. In addition, the European Union is considering restrictions on maritime services for Russian ships. Such measures could further limit the operations of Russia’s shadow fleet.

To explore the full discussion and Yuliia Pavytska’s insights, read the complete article. Learn more about the KSE Institute and its research on sanctions, Ukraine’s economic recovery, the Russian Oil Tracker, and other projects on the KSE Institute website.

The European Union is preparing a new sanctions package against Russia. However, experts warn that additional measures alone may not significantly weaken Moscow’s war economy. In a recent article by Lithuania’s LRT, analysts examined the EU’s proposed sanctions package and the ongoing challenge of closing loopholes that allow Russia to bypass restrictions.

Among the experts featured in the article is Petras Katinas, Research Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). Katinas stressed the importance of targeting Russia’s energy export logistics. In particular, he pointed to the continued role of Western shipping services in transporting Russian oil.

According to Petras Katinas, banning these vessels from carrying Russian crude and petroleum products would significantly disrupt exports. Nevertheless, he noted that political consensus may be difficult because several EU states have strong shipping industries.

The LRT article also explores the broader challenges facing EU sanctions policy. For example, the proposed measures may blacklist additional Russian banks and restrict trade in metals and chemicals. At the same time, policymakers are trying to limit the operations of Russia’s so-called shadow fleet. Still, enforcement gaps and different priorities among EU members complicate these efforts.

Petras Katinas also emphasized that the sanctions policy must remain flexible. Russia continuously develops new ways to bypass restrictions. Therefore, policymakers must update sanctions tools and close emerging loopholes. As Petras Katinas explained, Russia approaches sanctions evasion creatively, which means the EU will likely need several additional rounds of measures.

To explore the full analysis and Petras Katinas’ commentary, read the complete article in LRT.

Russia’s economy is beginning to show signs of strain after years of wartime spending and international sanctions. In a recent analysis published by Bloomberg Adria, experts examined whether the country’s economic resilience can last as inflation, labor shortages, and rising interest rates weigh on growth.

Among the experts featured was Daniel Spiro, Associate Professor of Economics at Uppsala University. Daniel Spiro highlighted how Russia’s wartime economic model relies heavily on state spending and the redirection of resources toward military production. While this strategy has supported short-term growth, Daniel Spiro noted that it also creates structural imbalances that can weaken long-term economic stability.

The article explores several pressures facing the Russian economy, including high inflation, tightening monetary policy, and increasing dependence on government-driven demand. Sanctions on energy exports and restrictions on technology imports also continue to reshape Russia’s trade patterns. These challenges may gradually reduce the country’s economic flexibility, even as the government seeks to sustain industrial output linked to the war effort.

In this context, Daniel Spiro emphasized that the current growth pattern may be difficult to maintain over time. A war-driven economic model can boost production in the short term but often leads to inefficiencies and slower development in other sectors.

To explore the full analysis and Daniel Spiro’s commentary, read the complete article in Bloomberg Adria.

A recent article in vnexpress.net explores what could happen if India stops purchasing Russian oil. The scenario has drawn attention during U.S.–India trade negotiations and ongoing Western sanctions on Moscow. The report explains how changes in India’s energy policy could reshape global oil markets, influence inflation, and add pressure to Russia’s budget.

Petras Katinas, an energy researcher at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), shared expert insight on India’s reliance on discounted Russian crude.

Petras Katinas noted that India saved about $33 billion in energy costs between 2022 and 2024 by buying Russian oil at discounted prices. These discounts helped India control fuel costs after the war in Ukraine disrupted global markets. However, estimates in the article suggest that ending these imports could raise India’s fuel expenses by $9–11 billion each year.

The article also examines the broader geopolitical and economic context. Since 2022, Western governments have targeted Russia’s oil and gas sector with sanctions. Despite these measures, energy exports remain a key source of revenue for Moscow. Russia produces about 12% of global oil supply. The oil and gas sector generates roughly 30% of the country’s budget revenues. Analysts warn that a sharp drop in demand for Russian oil could tighten global supply and push crude prices higher. Higher prices would likely affect inflation, transportation, and food costs worldwide.

For policymakers and markets, the debate shows how interconnected global energy trade has become. Petras Katinas emphasized that changes in India’s oil purchases could reshape Russia’s fiscal outlook and the global energy balance.

To read the full discussion and Petras Katinas’ commentary, visit the original article on vnexpress.net.

Further Reading

Energy exports remain central to Russia’s economy and its geopolitical influence. Sanctions on the energy sector aim to reduce state revenues and limit Russia’s global leverage. Explore the latest research on sanctions against Russia and its energy industry in the Sanctions Portal: Evidence Base section.

Are Western oil sanctions finally affecting Russia’s economy? A recent article examines whether stricter U.S. measures are cutting into Moscow’s energy revenues. The article explores falling oil and gas income, growing budget pressure, and the broader policy impact of secondary sanctions on global buyers.

Daniel Spiro, Associate Professor of Economics at Uppsala University, offered expert analysis on the shifting dynamics of Russia’s oil trade. He noted that recent U.S. sanctions appear to have unsettled even Russia’s most reliable customers.

“Perhaps for the first time, it seems to have affected India’s and China’s willingness to buy Russian oil,” Daniel Spiro said.

He explained that India has reduced volumes, while China is demanding deeper discounts. According to Daniel Spiro, this marks a notable change from previous trends, when demand from both countries remained steady despite restrictions.

The article also reviews the wider economic outlook. Russian oil and gas revenues fell sharply in 2025, reaching their lowest level in five years. Secondary sanctions targeting major firms have widened the discount on Russian crude. Analysts cited in the piece discuss the impact on Moscow’s federal budget, rising deficits, and the difficult fiscal choices ahead. Daniel Spiro emphasized that lower energy income forces the government to consider tax hikes, spending cuts, or greater state intervention in the energy sector.

For more on Daniel Spiro’s expert analysis of Russia oil sanctions and their economic outlook, read the full article.

Further Reading

Energy exports are central to Russia’s economy and have long served as a tool of geopolitical leverage for Moscow. Sanctions targeting the energy sector are designed to curb state revenues and diminish Russia’s global influence.

Explore the latest research on sanctions against Russia and its energy industry in the Sanctions Portal – Evidence Base section.

Europe and the United States are stepping up enforcement against Russia’s so-called shadow fleet. In a recent report by El Periódico, authorities detailed coordinated maritime operations targeting vessels accused of evading oil sanctions. The article outlines ship interceptions in the Mediterranean and North Atlantic, as well as growing pressure in the Baltic Sea.

Yuliia Pavytska, Head of the Sanctions Program at the Kyiv School of Economics, emphasized that recent political moves are a step forward but remain limited.

“The declaration is positive, but for now it remains largely a political statement,” Yuliia Pavytska noted.

She added that European partners increasingly recognize the broader threat posed by Russia’s shadow fleet. According to Yuliia Pavytska, these vessels are not only a revenue source for Moscow and an environmental risk, but also a direct security threat. She pointed to instances where hybrid attacks were allegedly launched from shadow fleet ships.

The article details France’s seizure of a tanker sailing under a false flag and U.S. interceptions of vessels linked to sanctions evasion. Fourteen European countries have also urged maritime authorities to address GPS interference and AIS manipulation in the Baltic Sea. These tactics, widely attributed to Russian-linked vessels, raise concerns over navigation safety and regional stability. The report highlights that an estimated 65 percent of Russia’s seaborne oil exports may rely on such ships.

Yuliia Pavytska’s analysis underscores that while enforcement actions increase operational costs for Russia, further legal and coordinated measures are needed. To read the full article and Yuliia Pavytska’s expert insight, visit El Periódico.

Further Reading

Energy exports play a central role in Russia’s economy. Moscow has long used them as a source of geopolitical leverage. Sanctions targeting the energy sector aim to reduce state revenue and weaken global influence. Explore the latest research on sanctions against Russia and its energy industry in the Sanctions Portal Evidence Base section.

In the December 2025 Monthly Analysis of Russian Fossil Fuel Exports and Sanctions, the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) examines how Moscow’s fossil fuel trade evolved under sanctions. Petras Katinas and his colleagues authored the report.

It shows that Russia’s daily fossil fuel export revenues fell slightly to about €500 million per day. This marks one of the lowest revenue levels since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

The December data show that China and Turkey remain major buyers of Russian crude and refined products. Russia also continued to rely on a shadow fleet of tankers operating under false flags. By the end of December, 93 such vessels had delivered nearly €0.8 billion in oil and refined products.

About 46 percent of crude carried by false-flagged tankers passed through the Danish Straits. This indicates that alternative shipping routes still undermine sanctions.

Katinas and his co-authors argue that entity-based sanctions and price caps are easy to circumvent. Companies use special-purpose vehicles and shadow shipping to bypass restrictions.

In response, CREA proposes a full maritime services ban. The measure would target the physical infrastructure of exports. It aims to close loopholes and introduce uniform, volume-based limits on Russian oil revenues.

The report also highlights shifting import patterns in December. India’s crude imports from Russia dropped sharply. In contrast, China’s seaborne crude imports rose by 23 percent month-on-month. They reached their highest level in four months. France and Spain also increased their Russian LNG imports. The increases were 18 percent and 27 percent, respectively.

Katinas concludes that current sanctions have reduced Russia’s export income. However, they have not stopped sanctioned exports or neutralized the shadow fleet.

To read the full December 2025 CREA analysis and Petras Katinas’ insights on how sanctions and export dynamics are evolving, visit the original report on the CREA website.

Further Reading

Energy exports are central to Russia’s economy and have long served as a tool of geopolitical leverage for Moscow. Sanctions targeting the energy sector are designed to curb state revenues and diminish Russia’s global influence.

Explore the latest research on sanctions against Russia and its energy industry in the Sanctions Portal – Evidence Base section.

Rising military tension in the Baltic Sea reflects Russia’s growing desperation to sustain oil revenues. In a recent Forum 24 report, Swedish defense officials warned of increased Russian naval presence and armed escorts accompanying vessels from Russia’s so-called shadow fleet. The Baltic Sea has become a critical export corridor as Moscow seeks to bypass sanctions and finance its war against Ukraine.

Henrik Wachtmeister, energy researcher at the Department of Earth Sciences at Uppsala University, explained that exports from Baltic ports rose sharply after Ukrainian drone strikes disrupted shipments in the Black Sea.

“The Baltic Sea is currently a safer export route. It is farther from Ukraine,” Henrik Wachtmeister noted.

His analysis highlights how geography has reshaped Russia’s oil logistics and reinforced the Baltic’s strategic importance.

The article also underscores mounting risks. Swedish officials warned of possible military incidents and environmental disasters, as many shadow fleet vessels are aging and lack proper insurance. With as many as 30 tankers transiting the Baltic at a time, concerns extend to potential collisions, oil spills, and hybrid threats. Russian fossil fuel revenues have declined since the start of the invasion, intensifying pressure on the Kremlin to protect this trade route.

Henrik Wachtmeister cautioned that any attack on these vessels in the Baltic could create severe environmental and security consequences. Salvage operations would be complex and dangerous. To read the full article and Henrik Wachtmeister’s expert insight, visit the original article here.

Further Reading: Sanctions, Energy, and Russia’s War Economy

Energy exports remain the backbone of Russia’s economy and a tool of geopolitical leverage. Sanctions targeting this sector aim to reduce state revenue and curb Moscow’s influence abroad.

Visit the Sanctions Portal Evidence Base to access the latest research on energy sanctions against Russia.

Review the Timeline of Western Sanctions and Russian Countermeasures to see how both sides have adapted since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.